On Friday, February 6, it became clear that the day-to-day of the Ukraine war depends largely on one person: Elon Musk. That day, Ukrainian soldiers on the front lines noticed a collapse in Russian military activity. The reason? Musk had decided, at the request of Kiev, to deactivate the terminals of his Starlink satellite communication service that were not registered with the company. Russia has tens of thousands of these terminals in Ukraine, but they were acquired through smuggling since the US has banned their export to that country. Starlink has been crucial in the war. Initially, Musk provided the service for free to Ukraine in 2022. A few months later, he withdrew it when Kiev was about to attack the Russian fleet. Now, Moscow will have to build fiber optic networks or turn to other less reliable and more expensive providers, although given Musk's volatility, no one knows if he will maintain the ban or not.
EU's 'Strategic Autonomy' Only Exists in Munich Speeches
While EU governments talk this weekend at the Munich Conference about strategic autonomy from the US, their actions are going in the opposite direction. France has set a great example by blocking the sale of the antenna division of the satellite company Eutelsat to the Swedish private equity fund EQT. As proudly stated by the French Finance Minister, Roland Lescure, "it is the only European competitor to Starlink [Elon Musk's company that monopolizes the sector globally]. Clearly, it is a strategic asset. So, I said no." The contradiction is evident because if Eutelsat is "the only European competitor," why can't Sweden, which is in the EU and NATO, have the antennas? At this rate, the same obsession with national sovereignty that has prevented the EU from having a unified banking system will hinder the consolidation of its defense industry.
SpaceX: From Mars to the Moon Due to Market Demands
Mars is so... 2025. In 2026, the trend is the Moon, where Jeff Bezos' rocket company, Blue Origin, will likely send an unmanned spacecraft next month. And SpaceX, the global leader in space travel, has just given up its goal of sending humans to Mars and settled for the Moon. The reason is not the rivalry between Elon Musk, the owner of SpaceX, and Bezos, but the stock market. Going to the Moon is much cheaper than going to Mars. With SpaceX preparing for its IPO this year, Musk has to tone down his grandiose ambitions. Also, small investors who entered SpaceX's capital through investment vehicles that sell shares of non-public companies at exorbitant prices and commissions that are out of this world have to cool down their dreams of becoming super-rich. These investors are finding out that they will hardly recover their investment with the IPO, all for playing hedge funds.
Cryptocurrencies: A Bubble Bursting Without Contagion
Close to 1.7 trillion euros in cryptocurrencies have disappeared from the global economy in five months, with most of the losses concentrated since January 30 when Donald Trump (a big supporter of these crypto assets) nominated Kevin Warsh for the presidency of the Federal Reserve. These assets have lost a whopping 45% of their total value, and few have noticed (except for the few who invest heavily in them). The reason is that, at least for now, cryptocurrencies are irrelevant at a systemic level, despite politicians and journalists talking about them non-stop. The total value of cryptocurrencies today is around 2 trillion euros, with bitcoin holding 1.2 trillion of that. These figures pale in comparison to the 122 trillion euros of global fixed income or the 107 trillion euros of equities. Over 50 million cryptocurrencies have been created in various forms to date, but only about twenty have some value.
Tariffs on China or How Deindustrialization Invites Beijing In
An idea popularized by Trump and accepted by all of the West is that imposing tariffs on Chinese products will force companies from that country to invest in the markets they sell to, thus preserving the industrial base and employment in those territories. Brilliant, right? Well... maybe not. Because sometimes, Chinese companies crush domestic competition from within. An example: Fuyao, which in 2014 bought a recently closed car window manufacturing plant from General Motors (GM) in Ohio, is on the verge of eliminating the competition. The same could happen in the manufacturing of solar panels, copper wires, and batteries. Four decades ago, another protectionist disguised as a liberal, Ronald Reagan, forced Japanese car manufacturers to produce in the United States. Since then, the market share of US-owned automotive companies has halved, from 75% in 1985 to 37% in 2025.