For over a century, the border between Pakistan and Afghanistan has been the scene of numerous conflicts and military skirmishes across generations; a boundary imposed by British colonialism, never recognized by Kabul, which divided communities, split Pashtun tribes, and left many wounds that never healed. Airstrikes, night raids, and many casualties mark a current escalation that now threatens to lead to a larger-scale conflict. Islamabad attacked Kabul on Friday, and the Pakistani Defense Minister announced that their country is in an "open war" with Afghanistan.
What is the origin of the conflict between Pakistan and Afghanistan?
To understand the current clash, we must go back to 1893. That year, British diplomat Mortimer Durand drew a border between the then Afghanistan and British India. That line -2,577 kilometers crossing mountains and Pashtun tribal territories- divided two sister communities.
When Pakistan was born in 1947, following the division of the subcontinent that had been under British colonial rule, it inherited that demarcation. For Islamabad, it was a legitimate international boundary. But Kabul never formally recognized it as a border. For many Afghans, it was a colonial imposition that fragmented their ethnic fabric. Successive Afghan governments considered the border to arbitrarily divide the Pashtun people.
Insurgent groups, traffickers, and militias have been operating on both sides of the border for decades, which has seen periodic closures, skirmishes, and artillery exchanges that have fueled a cycle of constant hostility. But the relationship has not always been one of confrontation. During the 1990s and the first decade of the 2000s, Pakistan became one of the main supporters of the Taliban, providing training and logistical support in exchange for influence over Kabul and indirect control of the border.
After the NATO forces ousted the Taliban from power in 2001 for harboring the perpetrators of the September 11 attacks on the Twin Towers, Pakistan provided refuge to the fighters and military and economic support for their subsequent insurgency against the US-backed Afghan government.
But when the Taliban returned to power in 2021, the border became more unpredictable, marked by the emergence of armed terrorist groups linked to the Islamic State that, according to Pakistani authorities, are supported by Kabul. Pakistan has faced an increase in Islamist violence.
What role does terrorism play?
The key is called Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP). Founded in 2007, this insurgent group fights against Pakistani forces and is behind many of the country's bloodiest attacks. Islamabad claims that the TTP operates from shelters in Afghanistan with the complicity of the Taliban authorities. Kabul denies this.
In recent weeks, Pakistan has suffered a new wave of deadly attacks. The government of Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif has claimed to have "conclusive evidence" that these attacks were planned from Afghan soil. Hence the recent response with selective airstrikes against alleged TTP camps and factions linked to the Islamic State in eastern Afghanistan.
Kabul has denounced that these attacks have hit civilian areas. Afghan retaliation came with coordinated offensives in late February along the border. Casualty figures differ drastically: Islamabad speaks of over a hundred Afghan fighters killed; the Taliban reduce their losses and raise the Pakistani ones. Propaganda is a fundamental part of this war.
Why has their truce failed?
After several border clashes in 2025, both countries agreed last autumn to a ceasefire mediated by Qatar. It worked as a temporary patch. But the increase in insurgent violence in Pakistan and internal pressure on its government eroded that containment. Islamabad also intensified its massive campaign to expel undocumented Afghan migrants, further straining relations.
A key point is the Torkham crossing, located in the Afghan province of Nangarhar and connecting with the Pakistani district of Khyber, which is vital for trade and human transit. It also serves as a thermometer of the conflict. In the recent confrontations, it has turned into a scenario of massive evacuations on both sides of the border. Afghans waiting to cross into Pakistan were moved this week to safe areas, while Pakistani residents in nearby villages were evacuated due to the threat of mortars and crossfire.
How did the current "open war" start?
Late Thursday night, the Taliban army launched attacks on Pakistani positions along the disputed border. Kabul said these attacks were in retaliation for a previous Pakistani airstrike that left at least 18 people dead.
In response, early Friday morning Pakistan launched Operation Ghazab Lil Haqq, which can be translated as "Operation Just Fury." Pakistani airstrikes hit Kabul, the southeastern province of Paktia, and Kandahar, considered the spiritual birthplace of the Taliban.
Who has greater military strength?
Pakistan is a nuclear power. According to the "Military Balance 2025" report from the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS), it has around 650,000 active-duty personnel and over 500,000 reservists, in addition to a military police force with 300,000 personnel.
Its strength is bolstered with modern weaponry: heavy artillery, armored vehicles, attack helicopters, submarines, state-of-the-art fighter jets, and a range of short and medium-range ballistic missiles capable of carrying nuclear warheads.
Experts point out that Afghanistan's army, governed by an internationally unrecognized regime, combines structures inherited from the insurgency with recent attempts at modernization, although it lacks the experience and weaponry of a conventional army. It is estimated that the Taliban regime's forces number between 150,000 and 200,000 fighters, although many units rely on tribal networks. Afghan strength lies mainly in mobility, knowledge of mountainous terrain, and their ability to operate as an organized insurgency.
What is at stake geopolitically?
The region is a chessboard of influences. China maintains close economic and security ties with Pakistan. Through the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), Beijing not only invests billions in infrastructure, ports, and energy but also ensures strategic support for Islamabad against India and the growing instability on its northwest border. Last year, during the intense military clash between Pakistan and India, the Pakistanis used Chinese-made aircraft to bomb regions of the neighboring country.
The United States, though withdrawn from Afghanistan since 2021, remains vigilant in this conflict. The US administration maintains a strategic interest in preventing Afghan territory from becoming a sanctuary for jihadist groups capable of launching international attacks. Washington, international observers claim, maintains discreet channels with Kabul.
Iran also pays close attention to its Afghan neighbor's eastern border. Tehran is concerned about the Taliban's influence in Afghanistan, especially in Shiite provinces and in the trafficking of narcotics and migrants towards its borders. Russia, on the other hand, has strengthened its relations with Islamabad and also maintains close contacts with Kabul, always monitoring the risk of radicalization that could spill over into its southern republics.