The Israeli-American bombing has had common elements, but also significant differences compared to the 'Twelve-Day War', in which Tel Aviv and Washington claimed to have "obliterated" Iran's nuclear program, which now, apparently, was still alive and kicking.
The major political difference is the coordination between Israel and the US. Since 2019, the two countries have been increasingly involved in joint military operations, culminating in the B-2 American attack on several Iranian nuclear facilities on June 22. On that occasion, US aircraft were preceded by Israeli F-35s that were refueled in flight by US tanker aircraft that opened a corridor for the bombers and their escorts of F-22 and F-35. It was the first time in history that the US and Israel collaborated on an attack mission against a country.
Now, the collaboration is total. It is only a matter of time - if it has not already happened - that the eleven US F-22s based at Ovda Air Base in southern Israel will participate in the war. It would be the first time in history that the US launches an attack on a country from the Jewish State. This, which would have been unimaginable a few years ago, is now feasible thanks to the Abraham Accords achieved by Donald Trump in 2019.
The major military difference is that the bombing started during the day. That means two things. One: that the Iranian defenses were so degraded after the June bombings - in which neither Israel nor the US lost a single aircraft - that it is not necessary to use the cover of night to act, as is almost customary in these missions. And two: that Israel and the US are pursuing a decapitation strike against Iran, and have tried to target the leaders of the Islamic Republic when they were in their offices or on their way to them. It is a sign that it is a total war.
What is more complicated is knowing what is happening. In this regard, the little information available is constantly changing, although, for now, it seems that there are three attack vectors. According to this theory, the two main ones would come from Israel and the Mediterranean, while a third would come from the Sea of Oman and focus on the Strait of Hormuz. The fact that no US ally - neither the UK nor the Arab countries - has given permission, at least for now, to use heavy bombers, predicts a long war in which Washington will likely continue to strengthen its forces and those of Israel with new units from their bases in Europe.
For now, it seems that the attack follows Donald Trump's pattern of letting the Israelis bear the brunt of degrading Iran's defenses, so that the US faces fewer obstacles. As a result, most manned flights against Iran have been carried out by Israel with the support of US fighter-bombers based on carriers, especially on the 'Lincoln', which is in the Sea of Oman, and dozens of cruise missiles from ships and submarines in the Indian Ocean, the Red Sea, and the Mediterranean.
The US has two aircraft carriers in the theater. The 'Gerald Ford', which is experiencing maintenance problems (including the clogging of part of its 650 toilets) and low morale (the crew has been at sea for eight months, and this is their second war mission, after Venezuela), is off the Israeli port of Haifa, whose refinery suffered serious damage from Iranian missiles in June. From there, it can launch its aircraft with the protection of US and Israeli anti-aircraft systems in that country.
The other US nuclear aircraft carrier is the 'Abraham Lincoln', which could be about 500 kilometers off the coast of Oman, 600 off Pakistan, and 900 off Iran. That is the minimum distance against Iranian anti-ship ballistic missiles, which can be very dangerous. Last year, one of them fell just one hundred meters from the US aircraft carrier 'Harry S. Truman' in the Red Sea. The ship had to make such a sharp evasive maneuver that an F-18 fighter-bomber crashed into the sea. Former general of the Iraq and Afghanistan wars and former CIA director David Petraeus raised the number of F-18s lost in the action to two this week.
While there is no confirmation that the 'Ford' aircraft have participated in missions, those from the 'Lincoln' have, attacking and apparently sinking several units of the Iranian Navy in the Persian Gulf area. The combat range of the F-18 and F-35 theoretically is around 1,000 kilometers, so these aircraft would have had to refuel in flight several times, probably with tanker aircraft stationed in Oman and the Emirates.
For now, the mission of the 'Lincoln' is to prevent Tehran from blocking the Strait of Hormuz, through which 20% of the world's oil passes. But the ayatollahs would have to be very desperate to do so: 80% of the oil Iran exports goes to China - its main market - through that Strait. The 'Lincoln' and its support fleet also protect the world's busiest maritime route, which forms in Sri Lanka, where the Red Sea and the Strait of Hormuz routes converge.
Because Iran could attack merchant ships traveling from Asia to Europe in the Indian Ocean, causing disruption to world trade. It is very likely that the Houthi rebels in Yemen, allies of Tehran, will also act in this way in the Red Sea and the southern area of the Sea of Oman, as they did when they closed that naval traffic corridor between 2019 and 2025.
The ships escorting the 'Lincoln' should be launching 'Tomahawk' cruise missiles against Iran. US ships in the Mediterranean are also doing so, as revealed by images of these missiles crossing the mountains of northern Iraq. In total, the US has 13 destroyers in the theater of operations, each with a maximum capacity of 40 missiles of this type.
In addition, there are submarines. Somewhere between the 'Lincoln' and the coast of Iran could be the 'Georgia', a monster with 154 cruise missiles. In addition, both that aircraft carrier and the 'Ford' carry nuclear escort submarines, capable of launching between 12 and 28 cruise missiles, although their mission is primarily to protect the fleet from attacks by Iranian submarines of Russian-made 'Kilo' class. The 'Lincoln' is being followed by a Chinese frigate.
This gives the US Navy a total of about 450 cruise missiles plus around 100-120 combat aircraft of different types. This is a moderate number, because on the first day of the invasion of Iraq, exactly 23 years ago, the US launched 800 'Tomahawks'. Israel does not have any similar weapons, except for its submarine-launched cruise missiles, which, as far as is known, have never been used in combat.
The action of land-based aircraft is more difficult to determine. Everything indicates that the main Israeli air bases are operating at full capacity. The question is what the Americans are doing. For now, no one knows if the F-22s from Ovda have been deployed, although it would make perfect sense if they had. Trita Parsi, vice president of the Washington think tank Quincy Institute and co-founder and former president of the National Iranian-American Council (NIAC), which has advocated dialogue between the two countries, acknowledged that "no one knows the details of the operation". One of the biggest mysteries is whether the Jordanian base of Muwaffaq Salti, which houses more than 60 US fighters, is being used. Washington also has another 120 fighter-bombers in Europe en route to the Middle East.
There is an indirect way to see where the fighter-bombers are heading: the tanker aircraft. These planes refuel combat aircraft in the air, so their presence indicates attack routes. At this point, there is another example of the close alliance between Washington and Tel Aviv. For the first time, the US has deployed these aircraft to Israel and is 'refueling' Israeli fighters. Several American tanker aircraft are at the Tel Aviv airport, from where they depart to refuel over the Mediterranean Israeli fighters.
Apparently, there are two 'nodes' for aerial refueling. One over Israel. The other over the central part of Saudi Arabia. This, again, makes sense. The US moved all its tanker aircraft from the Al-Udeid base in Qatar on Thursday, which today, Saturday, has suffered serious damage from Iranian missiles. By having them in Riyadh and other facilities, they dispersed them.
The Iranian attack on the airports where these aircraft are located highlighted the "strategic ambiguity" to which Riyadh subjected Tehran. If the ayatollahs did not attack those bases, they ran the risk of US and Israeli aircraft having a secure rear area for refueling, as well as for maintaining command and control aircraft, which direct the bombings from the sky. If they did, they exposed themselves to the Saudis allowing the Americans to position their combat aircraft in their territory, thus bringing them closer to their targets.
All of this seems to at least present three attack vectors on Iran. One, originating from Israel or US units in the Mediterranean and passing over Jordan, Syria, and Iraq before reaching Iran. Another, with the same starting point but passing through Saudi Arabia. And a third one that skirts the coast of Oman and acts on the Strait of Hormuz.