Ross Harrison is a senior researcher at the international relations think tank based in Washington, the Middle East Institute. In his book Decoding Iran's Foreign Policy, this academic argues that to understand Iranian behavior, it is essential to analyze it from the perspective of its strategic interests and the state's conception of time and territory in its calculations of foreign policy.
Question. What does Washington aim to achieve with the attack?
It reveals a clear intention to attack a regime that in the eyes of the United States is in a position of weakness. The attack is an attempt to provoke some kind of regime change either directly or as a stimulus to encourage a response from the Iranian people. What kind of change? It is still too early to know.
Answer. What is needed for the Islamic Republic to collapse? The successive crises and citizen protests that it has faced did not make it fall before.
The regime endures because it was built to withstand both internal and external attacks, but that does not mean it cannot collapse. In June, we saw that when the Israelis decimated their top security officials, they were immediately replaced by new ones. To achieve a total change, the entire apparatus must be dismantled. It is most likely that one of these three scenarios will occur. The first is that all the top officials fall, which would prevent the structural leadership from being regenerated. I see this as unlikely given Iran's institutional complexity. This country is not like Iraq in 2003, Libya in 2011, or Syria in 2024. For this to happen, a power superstructure must be eliminated, from the Parliament to the National Security Council, the New Defense Council, the Office of the Supreme Leader, and the Office of the President. The second possible scenario is that cracks open within the regime and certain figures rise up to promote a change of government within the current structure. The third possibility is a revolution of the people against their rulers.
Q. Let's talk about their allies: Russia is tied up with Ukraine and China did nothing in the June attack. Are the ayatollahs alone?
A. They have strong economic ties with Beijing because the Chinese buy a lot of Iranian oil. This does not imply that China will intervene. The question is whether the conflict prolongs, what will the UN do. Will their role matter?
Q. It seems clear that the US does not want a long military campaign.
A. President Trump's behavior pattern is very particular, difficult to interpret. So far, he has opted for quick, clean, and limited attacks. Like in Venezuela and Syria. Let's not forget that his election campaign was based on ending eternal wars and not starting new ones. In this scenario, two possibilities arise: a surgical operation with a clear beginning and end, and another where his action becomes blurred in the fog of war. We will have to see what the response is and the effectiveness of Iranian counterattacks, if they are capable of prolonging the conflict.
Q. Does Iran have the real capacity to cause real harm to Israel?
A. The Israeli defense system has proven to be quite robust. During the 12 days of the June conflict, between 80 and 85% of Iranian missiles were successfully intercepted. Those that hit caused non-strategic but significant damage. The extent of the damage will depend on the duration of the conflict. If it prolongs and the Iranians retain the ability to send missiles and drones to Israel, they will cause harm. Capacity for a definitive blow? Probably not.
Q. What will be Saudi Arabia's role?
A. Until yesterday morning, they were extremely cautious. Their Foreign Minister was in Washington on Friday advocating for restraint. Of course, not out of affinity with the Iranians, who are rivals, but because they know that with war, their economy, even their military structure, could be targets. We have seen Tehran retaliate against the US base in Bahrain and other territories in the region where they have interests. The Saudis fear that the conflict will affect their economic transformation plans, and their response will depend on the intensity of the attacks they suffer.
Q. 2026 began with Maduro's capture and now this. What is the next step in US foreign policy?
A. Donald Trump is a man of variable appetites. He currently favors surgical military strikes against his adversaries, although he has also threatened allies, as in the cases of Denmark - due to their interest in Greenland - Mexico, and Canada. The Venezuela situation went well, and I believe this has increased his appetite. This conflict may absorb this Administration for a period, but if the campaign is successful and short, with very few casualties, he may show interest in military actions elsewhere. The truth is that he is an expert in managing the narrative and his personal brand. Internally, he faces strong social opposition due to protests caused by ICE. He also has the Epstein files issue. He will measure not only what he can achieve militarily but also politically.