In China, always hungry for oil, the war in the Middle East is seen as an equation of energy survival. Since international sanctions tightened the noose around Tehran, the second world power has acted as the financial lung of the Islamic Republic, absorbing close to 90% of its oil exports. For the ayatollahs' regime, this flow has been oxygen; for the Xi Jinping government, a strategic opportunity.
In 2021, both countries sealed a "comprehensive strategic partnership" for 25 years that included Chinese promises of investments up to $400 billion in infrastructure, energy, and telecommunications. But beyond the memorandums and official photographs, the bond has been cemented in discounted oil. As it did with Venezuela and, especially, with Russia after the invasion of Ukraine, Beijing has turned Western sanctions into a bargaining chip: buying oil banned by others at reduced prices, ensuring supply, and, in the process, weakening the effectiveness of the financial punishment imposed by the West.
The mechanism that makes this possible operates in the shadows. The so-called "ghost fleet" - tankers changing flags, turning off their transponders, or conducting ship-to-ship transfers at sea - has allowed Iranian oil to reach Chinese ports consistently.
According to the consultancy Kpler, in 2025 China imported around 1.38 million barrels per day of Iranian oil, 13.4% of all its maritime purchases. A significant volume considering these are sanctioned barrels, traded in the shadow of the international financial system.
But the current escalation with US and Israel attacks against Iran and the almost total halt of traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, changes the rules of the game. For Beijing, as many international observers point out, losing a few hundred thousand Iranian barrels would be painful but manageable. What keeps Chinese energy planners up at night is the bottleneck that is yet to come.
Through the Strait of Hormuz flows close to 20% of the world's oil, including crude from Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Kuwait, and Iraq, all essential suppliers for the second-largest economy in the world. A prolonged closure would further spike prices, strain freight costs, and hit hard a China that imports around 70% of the oil it consumes.
Highest level in four years
On Monday, with tanker traffic through Hormuz almost completely paralyzed, oil prices rose to their highest level in four years. Transport costs skyrocketed within hours. In Asia, where economies rely on imported fuel, the impact was immediate. For China, already dealing with a fragile economic recovery and a crisis in the real estate sector, an energy shock would be an additional burden on industry and consumption.
In this tumultuous scenario, Moscow reappears as a key player for Beijing. Since the West imposed massive sanctions on Russia after the invasion of Ukraine, the Kremlin redirected its oil towards Asia with substantial discounts. China became its main customer, benefiting from discounts that, at times, exceeded $20 per barrel compared to Brent. Earlier this year, the trend already pointed to an increase in Chinese purchases of Russian oil, in part because India - the other major buyer - reduced volumes under pressure from Washington.
Threat to its energy security
Data from Ukraine's Foreign Intelligence Service indicates that China was the largest recipient of Russian oil transported by the "ghost fleet" in January: 51 trips and 4.99 million tons, almost 400,000 more than in December. This flow could intensify if the conflict in the Gulf persists. Unlike Gulf oil, Russian oil reaches China through maritime routes that do not pass through Hormuz and, in part, through land pipelines like the one connecting Eastern Siberia with northeastern China, reducing exposure to naval blockades.
For Beijing, the war in the Middle East is a threat to its energy security that forces it to consolidate a stronger economic axis with Russia, further challenging Western sanctioning order. The more unstable the Gulf, the more attractive the Russian barrel will become for Beijing, even if it means financially supporting Moscow even more.