Yesterday, the largest refinery of the American company Aramco in Saudi Arabia was hit by the debris of two Iranian drones, a tanker was attacked in the Strait of Hormuz, and Qatar announced the suspension of its gas production due to the escalation of violence. In the midst of the collapse in the Middle East, with Brent prices rising and gas prices soaring, European governments and oil companies are confident that the supply is guaranteed. And one of the reasons for this relative calm is more than 8,000 kilometers away, in Venezuela, which has emerged as a strategic hub for Western supply security in this crisis.
The risk teams of the largest Western oil companies have been keeping a close eye on Iran for months. "We are in a situation of permanent attention because the world is intense enough for us not to lose focus," describes a senior executive of one of the largest Spanish energy companies. However, he describes the military escalation in the Gulf as "controlled tension."
Israel and the United States' attacks on Iran and Tehran's retaliations in the region have caught Europe off guard in a very different position from the one it had during the Yom Kippur War, which led to a global energy shock that resulted in the 1973 oil crisis. Back then, OPEC decided to cut off oil supplies to countries that supported Israel during the conflict, leading to a worldwide fuel price surge. Since then, but especially after the war in Ukraine, the Twenty-Seven have diversified their fuel imports. OPEC has lost relative weight compared to Norway, the US, and possibly now Venezuela as well.
The Strait of Hormuz is the main route for the fuel exports of Saudi Arabia, Iraq, the UAE, Iran, or Qatar. On the other side, with five million barrels per day, China is the main destination for the fuel passing through this artery of world trade, followed by the rest of Asia (2.2 million). This makes the Asian giant the unquestionable loser of the collapse of the Strait of Hormuz.
Under different circumstances, Beijing would turn to Venezuela, one of its historical partners, to offset the imminent supply drop. However, currently, Caracas' oil serves the interests of the West in general and Washington's in particular.
The war against Iran erupted just two months after Washington's military intervention in Caracas. After capturing Nicolás Maduro, the Donald Trump administration has politically and economically intervened in the country. One of its first moves has been to grant major global oil companies licenses to operate in the territory.
Venezuela, which holds a fifth of the world's oil reserves, used to produce 3 million barrels per day at its peak in the mid-2000s. Although regaining that pace will not happen overnight, since Maduro's fall, its exports have dramatically increased to 800,000 barrels per day in January, up from 498,000 barrels per day in December. While China has acquired some of that oil, it now has to purchase it through Washington. According to US Energy Secretary Chris Wright, transactions will be with "legitimate Chinese businesses under legitimate commercial conditions." In other words, under the rules set by Donald Trump.
The Venezuelan oil industry still requires significant investment and infrastructure. Some US oil companies still have reservations due to past expropriations. Nevertheless, with the Strait of Hormuz out of play, Western energy companies are looking at Caracas with renewed interest.
"Fuel flows always end up readjusting. For the West, a normalized situation in the Venezuelan oil industry creates a significant counterbalance against Iran," industry sources emphasize, highlighting that China has lost part of that strength.