The open war in the Middle East enters its third day in the stock market with no signs of when it will end, increasing uncertainty in the markets and business concerns due to the rise in fuel prices.
The Ibex 35 started this Wednesday with an initial drop of 0.67%, a slight decrease after yesterday's plunge of over 4%, but still leading the rest of Europe. In fact, the other indices in the Old Continent started with slight gains, such as the German DAX (up 0.6%), the British FTSE 100 (0.04%), or the French CAC 40 (0.3%).
Analysts expect a calmer session than in recent days, with a mixed but bearish trend, as pointed out by Renta 4. The instability persists, and the escalation of the Iran conflict continues to strain the markets. At the European closing bell, the VIX, popularly known as the fear index, stood at 22 points. This means that it is currently below the levels of high volatility (starting from 25 points) reached yesterday but still reflects an unstable situation, indicating that the indices' trend can change at any moment.
In the case of the Madrid Stock Exchange, this Wednesday it alternates between positive and negative territories after two critical sessions where it lost over 66 billion euros. It is worth noting that today it is under new and particular pressure: the exchange of responses between the US and Spain, where Donald Trump has threatened a commercial embargo on Spanish companies in retaliation for the Spanish government's refusal to allow the use of the military bases in Rota (Cádiz) and Morón (Seville) to attack Iran.
Consequently, among the most affected listed companies at the opening are those most exposed to the US. For example, Acciona (-5.25%), Acciona Energía (-3.48%), and Grifols (-2.78%) with production plants in the US, while ACS (-0.97%), which recently focused on its expansion in the US, also experienced corrections in its stock price at the opening. Additionally, as highlighted by Renta 4, Spain is particularly sensitive to these threats because the US is currently the main source of imported liquefied natural gas (LNG), "as well as the most important market for our exports outside of Europe."
On a more positive note, especially after a day in the red for all listed companies, this Wednesday started with increases for IAG (+2%), Amadeus (+1.56%), Repsol (+0.64%), Bankinter (+0.6%), and BBVA (+0.5%).
Attention is once again focused on the commodities market: oil and gas prices continue to rise, albeit with less intensity than in previous days. At this time, the former is up by 2.71% to trade at $83.58 per barrel of Brent, while the latter has increased by 3.56% to 55.6 euros per megawatt-hour in the TTF index.
"The key lies in the duration of the conflict. If the rise in oil, gas, and freight prices persists enough to pressure inflation and influence the roadmaps of central banks," as stated by Bankinter, who anticipate that "the market will continue to follow the headlines" today with possibilities of recovery in Europe.
The European session begins after Asia had another "apocalyptic" day, according to analysts. The main index of the Tokyo Stock Exchange, the Nikkei, plummeted by 3.61%. The indices in China, which is also the country most dependent on Iran in terms of oil, dropped by almost 2.3% in the case of the Hang Seng. And the Kospi in South Korea, already affected after yesterday's session (losing 7%), closed with an 11% decline in its most severe session since 2008, as reported by Bloomberg. The losses were due to the decline of companies that had appreciated significantly in recent weeks, such as Hyundai and Samsung.
On the other hand, Wall Street concluded yesterday's session with general losses of around 1%, milder than those recorded in Europe (3%). At the opening of the Old Continent today, the futures of the main American indices indicate new declines, albeit softer than those seen the day before, around 0.5%.