Donald Trump has to square the circle and he has to do it very quickly. The Epic Fury operation, which aimed to decapitate the Iranian leadership and eliminate their main military installations, but did not clearly define the day after, is becoming increasingly complicated for him. His army is burning over a billion dollars a day in weaponry, fuel, and personnel, and in addition to the seven fatalities, there are around 140 wounded.
Oil prices surge due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, driving up gasoline prices and roiling the markets. Public opinion, in the US and around the world, is against it. And the Iranian regime, far from the "absolute surrender" that Trump demands, defies him by stating that they, not Washington, will determine when it all ends. A catastrophic scenario for the 'midterms', the November legislative elections, where the Republicans are likely to lose control of the House of Representatives and perhaps also the Senate.
Recent reports agree that Trump and his team thought that after the brutal attacks of the first 72 hours, and after the death of Ali Jamenei and up to 50 high-ranking officials, collapse was inevitable. They believed the operation would be somewhat similar, in its results more than its means, to the attacks against the summer 2025 nuclear program and that of Nicolás Maduro: go in, come out with few casualties, and bring about a regime change, or at least a change within the regime. But it has not turned out that way, and it doesn't seem like it will. Mojtaba Jamenei, more radical, younger, more convinced of the need for a nuclear weapon, has succeeded his father. Retaliations have paralyzed oil transit, air traffic, and life in Gulf countries. There is no internal revolution. And the White House has gotten itself into a situation that is not easy to get out of.
On Monday, the president once again displayed his greatest talent, that of saying one thing and its opposite several times, managing to make investors, world leaders, and many citizens latch onto only what interests them most. In this case, that the war "is almost over" and its end is "very soon." The problem is that Trump also stated that they had not yet achieved sufficient objectives, and that he does not like the new leader. When asked why he was saying that military operations were so advanced that it would end sooner than expected, while his War Minister said they were just beginning, the president, who has never ruled out deploying troops, responded that "both things were possible." Attempting that almost mystical balancing act.
Hours later, the Pentagon announced the day with more intense bombings. Ultimately, the operations will end when the commander-in-chief determines the military objectives have been met, fully realized, and that Iran is in a position of complete and unconditional surrender, whether they say it or not" the White House tried to clarify shortly after.
Trump justified the war by claiming that Iran was a threat, that it had not abandoned its military nuclear program, and that it planned to attack Israel. A significant part of his team and Congress urge, plead, almost demand that he extricate himself from this hornet's nest. That he, like George W. Bush on that famous aircraft carrier, declares "mission accomplished" before getting trapped in another eternal war in the Middle East. Boasting about decimating the Iranian Navy, minimizing their drone and ballistic missile programs, eliminating their leader and largest installations. Because if the polls were already bad, a scenario of expensive oil for months would inevitably impact inflation, growth, and the deficit estimates.
"The recent increase in oil and gas prices is temporary, this operation will result in lower gas prices in the long term once the national security objectives of Operation Epic Fury are fully achieved. Americans will see oil and gas prices drop rapidly, potentially even lower than they were prior to the start of the operation," stated White House spokesperson Karoline Leavitt on Tuesday.
But another part of his circle, and his own instinct, seem to tell him that he cannot leave things half-done. That this time he will not be able to sell his success narrative if a Jamenei remains at the helm of the regime. He may argue that he has neutralized all threats, but he will always be reminded that back in July 2025, he swore that the entire Iranian nuclear program had been "annihilated." And here we are again.
Republican congressmen and senators insist on television that it will not be a long war, that lessons have been learned. But Democrats, after each secret briefing from the Pentagon and the CIA, appear more uneasy. "I can tell you what I heard is not just concerning, it is disturbing," said Senator Jacky Rosen after the closed-door session of the Armed Services Committee. "I'm not sure what the end goal is or what their plans are. Certainly, they have not justified their position." Elizabeth Warren, another Democratic senator and a frequent target of Trump's jabs, said she is "very worried about how long this will drag on," adding that "we are hearing no logical estimates about when it will be over."
In the past week, some reports about the possibility that Iranian scientists and military personnel had found a way to access the nuclear material buried after the 2025 attacks crept into the Washington debate. There is no certainty whether it is truly possible, if they have found a way to retrieve it, if it is theory, or if there are plans to obtain it. But this further complicates the exit strategy. Since last Wednesday, Trump has been repeating the formula that "Iran was two weeks away" from something. From obtaining a bomb or from attacking. If there is a possibility of recovering that material, the narrative of a "destroyed" program would not be the only thing full of holes.
US media, citing administration officials, indicate that as long as Tehran continues to launch missiles or drones at regional countries, and especially as long as Israel (where support for the intervention is very high) continues to want to destroy Iranian targets, it was unlikely that the United States could withdraw. Trump himself said the decision would be made in consultation with Benjamin Netanyahu and reportedly signaled to his closest aides that he also wants to get rid of the new Iranian leader. The White House spokesperson insists daily that polls show Americans want the Iranian threat to disappear forever, but published numbers show historically low support for foreign intervention.
"Everything indicates that the war will end in one of the following three ways. One would be a clear and damaging American defeat. If a mix of global pressure and domestic opposition forces the Trump administration to end the conflict before full trade is restored through the Gulf, a battered Iran will emerge having demonstrated its ability to close the Gulf against everything the world's greatest military power can throw at it. America's power and prestige, not to mention Mr. Trump's, would struggle to recover from such a fiasco.. Alternatively, the Americans could reopen the Gulf as a new Iranian government more focused on developing the country than on dominating its neighbors emerges. This would be a major victory for the Trump administration. Most likely is an in-between scenario in which the U.S. largely clears the Gulf but the current regime survives. Operation Epic Fury would in that case be remembered as the Mother of All Lawnmowers, solving nothing fundamental but preserving a fragile balance of power in a vital part of the world" notes historian Walter Russel Mead, an expert in US Foreign Policy, in the pages of the WSJ.