In 2005, as part of her doctoral thesis, Clionadh Raleigh founded an observatory to monitor political violence worldwide in real-time. Two decades later, ACLED is an NGO with 200 employees that pays attention to both street protests and major armed conflicts. Raleigh (Newcastle West, Ireland) serves as the executive director after her time at the University of Sussex as a professor of Political Geography and Conflicts.
Iran is laying mines in the waters of the Strait of Hormuz and the US is moving anti-aircraft systems to the Persian Gulf from South Korea, two events that lead the analyst to believe that the war in the Middle East is far from over and that its impact is becoming increasingly global, as she states in the podcast Conflict of Interest.
Question. Why has this conflict spread to more countries and faster than any other modern war?
Answer. Iran cannot win this war from the conventional perspective of military victory. What it can do is increase the cost of involvement for secondary actors: the Gulf States. By doing so, it is affecting their political stability and economic security. These countries can argue to the US that participating in the conflict is too costly and, therefore, they stay out. Iran is trying to make the price to pay too high.
Q. Are we then entering a war of attrition?
A. Without a doubt. But President Trump's public assessment of losses in Iran's equipment and infrastructure is exaggerated. It is true that the attacks have had a massive impact on the regime... and also that it has prepared for a conflict of this nature. We go back to before: Iran knows it cannot win this conflict with traditional means. Hence, it has thousands of drones, military infrastructures that cannot be destroyed from the air, and has developed a layered military and security strategy.
Q. What is the Decentralized Mosaic Defense (DMD) that Iran claims to have adopted after the Twelve-Day War?
A. It is a central element of the strategic military thinking of the Islamic Republic, designed to ensure the survival of the regime and hinder any invasion attempt. It involves geographical decentralization and subdivision of the Revolutionary Guard and its militias into multiple units with full autonomy for decision-making according to the state's ideology. Is it working? I don't think so. I believe the regime is trying to exert centralized control because there is disagreement on the best strategy. At the moment, Iran has attacked 15 countries. It is a policy that some experts believe will backfire. Some of these bombings are believed to have been carried out by autonomous units. A decentralized Iran can coordinate the response against an aerial campaign, but the war is heading towards a different scenario.
Q. How critical would a phase of the war be in which attacks on military bases and energy infrastructure give way to attacks on civilian infrastructure such as desalination plants?
A. It would be an enormously destructive situation. Water desalination is the only thing that guarantees the population's subsistence in the Middle East. It is considered the most essential civil infrastructure. Iran attacked a Bahraini desalination plant last Sunday. There were unconfirmed reports of a US and Israeli attack on a desalination plant in Iran. That would certainly spark a new debate.
Q. You say that running out of weapons could be less important for Iran than running out of political will.
A. Yes. The arsenal is important, but missiles will not tilt the war towards any of the four possible scenarios: the Iranian regime resisting and becoming even more radical (as desired by its leadership); the regime collapsing and spreading chaos in the region (as desired by the Israelis); the regime changing (which would garner significant support from the population) or the regime politically realigning (as pursued by the Americans).
Q. Imposing democracy through bombings, besides being a cliché, is a bad idea?
A. It is a huge mistake. Just as thinking that democracy would come through popular protests.
Q. Opposition to the regime was brutally suppressed in the streets weeks before the war began. What is worse for those who want a change, or even a counterrevolution, in Iran: a long or short war?
A. The regime will only fall if the Revolutionary Guard disintegrates. That would entail a level of chaos that I don't think the Iranian people can endure or desire. Perhaps they would settle for a regime change more in line with what the US intends. But under current circumstances, that change is unlikely.
Q. What message does the election of Mojtaba Jamenei as the new Supreme Leader send?
A. Surely he is not the most brilliant figure, but the regime needed continuity, to reestablish a certain hierarchy. The one in charge is the Revolutionary Guard, not Jamenei.
Q. Some believe we are heading into World War III. Do you agree?
A. Yes. It is very difficult to predict, but this conflict right now meets the perfect conditions for the US to end up clashing with Russia and China. I cannot imagine another scenario that could trigger a massive conflict other than this one.
Q. Is the US prepared for the war of the 21st century?
A. One of the problems is that the way the US has conducted wars in recent decades, with cutting-edge technology, has been extremely costly. Where the US military suffers the most is in ground campaigns. I wouldn't bet against it, but it will have challenges ahead, let's put it that way. All the challenges involved in deployments in Iraq, Afghanistan, and Syria will be present in Iran.