Navigating in turbulent waters is not easy, and companies are aware of this. The Iran war has had immediate consequences on the global economy, such as the rise in oil and gas prices and, consequently, fuel prices. However, beyond the negative effects that may continue if the conflict persists, what it has already generated globally is uncertainty. A very negative phenomenon for the economy because it directly affects the confidence of the agents: it can slow down household consumption and, even before that, lead to a standstill in companies' investment decisions.
"The outbreak of war in the Middle East has once again increased global uncertainty (...) The impact of this conflict will depend on its duration and geographical extent, but Iran's response has already caused a sharp rise in energy prices (...) The last channel through which the Spanish economy could be affected is trust. If households and companies, concerned about the geopolitical context, overreact and reduce their consumption and investment for precautionary reasons, the shock would be significant. It should not be the case. The Spanish economy has started the year on a good note, maintains a relatively limited commercial exposure to the countries of the Middle East, and is in a reasonably solid macrofinancial position. Nevertheless, for the good of all - and especially for the men and women of the Middle East - let us hope that the war ends as soon as possible," stated Oriol Aspachs, Director of Spanish Economy at CaixaBank, this week.
The central scenario for all analysts is that the war will not last long, as American society itself condemns the intervention, and President Donald Trump faces midterm elections in November. "The markets are betting on a scenario of limited conflict or, at least, on an escalation that does not lead to a prolonged interruption of oil and gas flows from the Gulf. This reading does not eliminate the risk, but it does help put it into perspective," said Rafael Doménech, Head of Economic Analysis at BBVA Research, in Actualidad Económica, this Sunday.
With this being the widespread hypothesis, companies have decided to wait and see if it materializes before making any investment decisions since, in principle, the wait should not be long, as confirmed by business sources to this media outlet. Advisors are not recommending any action: they do not advise leaving conflict zones if there are businesses or investments there, but they also would not recommend increasing positions now. The general recommendation is to wait.
"There may be a paralysis especially in large strategic investments. The investment process has a certain inertia, there are previous decisions that result in investment over time, I do not think that will be reversed, but there may be new investment projects where companies prefer to wait," said Raymond Torres, Director of Economic Situation at Funcas, to EL MUNDO, and pointed out that uncertainty "is always a very important factor in business decision-making and, in particular, in investment, because investment by definition is long-term."
Miguel Cardoso, Chief Economist for Spain at BBVA Research, noted on Monday that "as long as the scenario of high volatility persists, the increase in oil prices continues, and people do not have certainty, much of the economic slowdown expected for the coming quarters could be concentrated in investment."
The geopolitical environment is crucial in motivating business decisions. The Global Uncertainty Index, compiled by economists at the International Monetary Fund (IMF), reached its peak in September 2025 and had since been declining until it has just been interrupted: the confrontation between Washington and Tehran has once again driven it upwards. "Uncertainty has become an economic actor in itself and is influencing all kinds of decisions," stated Nela Richardson, Chief Economist of ADP, at a World Economic Forum event held in September in New York.
This past Sunday, the report Perspectives 2026 by CEOE and KPMG was published, based on surveys conducted before the war broke out, and already indicated that "34% of respondents had already redefined their growth strategies due to the current geopolitical context," while an additional 10% were considering doing so soon. "36% are still analyzing these factors to make a decision. Areas related to internationalization (from expansion in other countries and investments) as well as those more dependent on value chains (innovation and technology projects or strategic alliances) are the most affected by the redefinition of strategies."
One in three companies then expected that the economy would worsen in the next twelve months, a proportion that has surely increased following the war.
Bert Colijn, Chief Economist at ING, already notes that "the conflict in the Middle East is clearly acting as a brake on the industry, as higher energy prices and broader supply chain disruptions slow down the long-awaited manufacturing recovery." He points out that industry prospects deteriorated in January compared to December in Spain, as well as in Germany and Italy. "The risk is that another prolonged increase in energy costs may end up thwarting hopes of recovery in energy-intensive industries, which have been struggling since the previous energy price shock in 2021-22. Although other sectors have managed to thrive despite headwinds from the previous shock, this could be a sufficient burden for manufacturing to cool hopes of a recovery," he warns.