The USS Tripoli, a U.S. amphibious assault ship, has just set sail from its homeport in Sasebo, on the Japanese island of Kyushu, heading to the Middle East with 2,500 marines on board. The deployment includes F-35 stealth fighters, MV-22 Osprey transport aircraft, and landing craft ready to transport troops ashore.
In South Korea, they have been witnessing U.S. troops dismantling THAAD and Patriot systems at Osan Air Base, 70 kilometers from Seoul, for the past two weeks. These defense systems, designed to protect South Koreans from a potential North Korean aerial attack, are now being loaded onto C-17 aircraft bound for the Persian Gulf to protect U.S. bases from Iranian missile and drone attacks.
In Seoul and Tokyo, the closest allies of Washington in the Indo-Pacific, the temporary reduction of U.S. military capabilities, crucial for deterrence against Beijing or Pyongyang, is causing concern. The war in the Middle East is testing the U.S. security commitment in a region that the Trump Administration designated as "our top theater."
In South Korea, President Lee Jae Myung has tried to reassure the population by assuring them that the country can still deter North Korea, even if the U.S. relocates resources and weaponry. Just days after Lee made an initial statement to this effect, Pyongyang demonstrated its strength by launching 10 ballistic missiles towards the Sea of Japan.
Analysts and diplomats agree that in the long term, this conflict could weaken U.S. influence against China, which is accelerating its military modernization. "Washington's focus on Iran gives Beijing room for territorial assertiveness," warns a European diplomat based in the Chinese capital, citing increased pressure on Taiwan and the construction of new artificial islands in the South China Sea.
According to a 2024 report from the U.S. Congress, there are 24 permanent U.S. bases in East Asia and another 20 military sites to which the Pentagon has access. The largest airbase is in Okinawa, Japan. In 2023, the Philippines expanded the number of bases accessible to the U.S. to nine, including four new ones, three of them near Taiwan.
In Taipei, there is also concern about how the war in Iran is depleting the stockpile of long-range cruise missiles that the U.S. would need to deter any Chinese invasion attempt. In just six days, U.S. forces fired 786 JASSM missiles and 319 Tomahawks, enough to deplete several years of production. Defense experts consider these systems crucial as they allow attacks from beyond the range of enemy defenses, reducing risks for aircraft and ships.
"My main concern is that we are using up ammunition needed to deter an attack on Taiwan," stated a senior Taiwanese official in an interview with the Financial Times. Another national security official added, "If the U.S. devotes too much time and resources to other battlefields, a real imbalance is created." With China claiming the island and threatening to take it by force, the loss of U.S. capability is not a minor detail: it weakens deterrence and increases Taiwan's vulnerability just when it would rely more on Washington.
"Any weakening of U.S. presence in the Asia-Pacific will inevitably benefit someone, and you can imagine who," says Li Yihu, dean of the Taiwan Research Institute at Peking University and a member of the Chinese Parliament. "Beijing could undoubtedly benefit. Washington's involvement in multiple conflicts, including the ongoing war in Iran, is straining its armed forces," he continues.
In Beijing, Chinese spokespersons continue to call for an end to the conflict in the Middle East, warning about its impact on energy, maritime transport, and global trade. "History and reality have repeatedly shown that force does not solve problems and that armed conflict only breeds more hatred," said Lin Jian, spokesperson for the Ministry of Foreign Affairs.
Foreign Minister Wang Yi described the conflict as an "unjust war" during a call with Emmanuel Bonne, principal diplomatic advisor to French President Emmanuel Macron. Except for the United States, Wang has discussed the conflict with all permanent members of the UN Security Council. "We must work together to uphold international law and prevent the world from returning to the law of the jungle," he declared.
This Sunday, at the opening of an economic forum in Beijing, Prime Minister Li Qiang made another veiled criticism of Washington in a plea against protectionism: "Now, the policy of power acts with impunity; at the same time, calls to defend equity and justice are heard more loudly."