President Donald Trump announced early Monday morning that, after a weekend of high-level talks with promising progress, the United States was satisfied and postponed the 48-hour ultimatum before starting to bomb Iran's main energy infrastructure. Trump seemed to see a "deal" closer, something he has been theorizing about for weeks without explaining exactly what it would entail. As soon as the market opened, he received the news with euphoria after showing signs of nervousness the day before.
In another time, this sequence would not have been extraordinary within the seriousness of a war. But Trump's message, true to his style, timing, and rhetoric, caused something hardly imaginable in the past: widespread mockery, total disbelief on all continents, and sarcastic denials by Iran. Following everything that has happened in the last month (or rather, what has been seen repeatedly over the past year), clashes with partners and neighbors, and the crude timing, much of the world interpreted the move in terms of a step back after an initial outburst, pure fantasy, a maneuver to gain time before an invasion, or even financial manipulation. Anything but what was announced.
On Sunday, from his residence in Florida, the president had once again promised a devastating use of force in response to the frustration over the navigation blockade and passage to tankers. "If Iran does not FULLY, WITHOUT THREATS, open the Strait of Hormuz within 48 HOURS from this precise moment, the United States of America will attack and annihilate their various POWER PLANTS, STARTING WITH THE LARGEST!" he wrote on Truth Social. Nothing really unexpected. In Trump's universe, everything is compatible: saying that the war is over, that the United States has won and that all objectives have been achieved, while mobilizing tens of thousands of additional soldiers without ruling out a ground operation; saying that Iran's forces have been annihilated and that they have "only" drones, missiles, or bomb boats to close the Straits of Hormuz; despising, insulting, and ignoring NATO allies while demanding their presence in the operation under coercion, which he described as "simple" and "risk-free."
"I am pleased to report that the United States of America and the country of Iran have held very good and productive discussions over the past two days regarding a complete and total resolution of our hostilities in the Middle East. Based on the tenor and tone of these deep, detailed, and constructive conversations - which will continue throughout the week - I have instructed the Department of War to postpone any military attack on Iranian power plants and energy infrastructure for a period of five days, subject to the success of the ongoing meetings and discussions," Trump added on his social network.
From Tehran, they responded that none of that had happened. That there are no direct talks, but through many mediators like Pakistan, Egypt, Oman, and Turkey. And that it was Washington who had proposed approaches between Vice President JD Vance and the Iranian Assembly President, Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf, after accepting that Steve Witkoff is unacceptable to the ayatollahs due to his pro-Israel stance. "In recent days, messages were received through certain friendly states conveying the U.S. request to engage in negotiations to end the war," summarized Esmaeil Baqaei, spokesman for the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, to the official IRNA news agency. "Appropriate responses were given in accordance with the country's fundamental positions," he concluded.
But even before Iran denied the existence of "direct talks," stating that it was Trump and his friends' noise to enrich themselves with oil prices, suspicions had already multiplied in the United States regarding a new possibility of stock and commodity manipulation, with strange movements registered minutes before the message. Criticisms had also emerged over what Democrats denounced as a likely invention, a whim of the president capable of saying anything in public. The subsequent words of the Republican, in what seemed like improvisations on the fly, did not help. "We are negotiating with someone very important," he said from Palm Beach Airport (Florida) before returning to Washington. "I'm not going to say who so they don't kill him," he explained. Pressed on what progress he was referring to in the talks led by his son-in-law Jared Kushner and his friend and special envoy Steve Witkoff, and what specific agreements had been reached with the Iranians for that change in his ultimatum, Trump could not cite any, except that Iran will not have nuclear weapons. "Many, like 15 points," he added in abstract terms.
Speculation is a possibility, especially because the destruction threats came with the market closed and were withdrawn shortly before its opening on Monday. Accusations against the president, his inner circle, his family, and the families of his negotiators for amassing fortunes in the past year have been constant. There are many suspicious operations before important announcements, whether commercial, tariff-related, fights with China, or now related to oil, geopolitics, and war.
Unable to distinguish what is true, what is fantasy, and what is a stratagem, markets have become accustomed, relativizing. Things are going too well for them to act as they would have in other circumstances. Thus, when they fall, they do not plummet, clinging to the first hint of good news, no matter how absurd or trivial. When Trump declared Liberation Day a year ago, the reaction was brutal, especially in debt. The president, genuinely concerned, backtracked then, but now he seems to have found a more effective formula that allows him to move forward.
Reading his words, the first thing that was considered, more generally, is that the president has once again lived up to the nickname of "TACO", for the acronym in English of "Trump Always Chickens Out". He has gotten himself into a much more complicated situation than he thought, and what worked in Venezuela did not work now, so after threatening total destruction and seeing no consequences, he opted to present a possible understanding to ease tensions.
There has been a particular emphasis on the pathological need of this White House to claim that the rest of the world dances to its tune, that there are queues, fights, to be the first to offer deals. In Trump's mythology, the president never calls, it is others who comply. It is of utmost importance, domination, and submission. "Tomorrow morning, we were expected to blow up their largest power plants, which cost over $10 billion. One shot and they disappear. They collapse. Why would they want that? So they called. I didn't call. They called. They want to make a deal," Trump added in one of his several morning statements.
But after many years of observing his behavior in the White House, especially in this second term, the most rational, most likely analysis is that the president is simply repeating his usual negotiation strategy. What he did as a businessman, especially with tariffs. First, the shock: make a random but brutal announcement, capable of shaking investors, allies, enemies. Then, a global trade war. In this case, a literal war and a threat to destroy power plants and leave Iran in the dark.
The second phase is the strategic retreat: a few hours later, make an apparent 180-degree turn, saying that under his pressure, the other party unconditionally surrendered, that they called and begged for forgiveness. He did it by temporarily suspending the so-called reciprocal tariffs, he did it with Greenland, with Canada, time and time again with China. Trump replicates from the Oval Office what he sells in his books about the art of the deal: look for winning cards, shock, confuse, disconcert so that the opponent, or the enemy, thinks that anything is possible. In his businesses, Trump did not always have the "best cards," the perfect hand, but now he has the most powerful army in the world behind him and control of Iranian airspace.
And there comes the third phase: simply buying time before the next strike. It could be a withdrawal while claiming victory. Or a high-stakes move. Just like in the first attack on Iran in the summer of 2025, he said he needed two weeks to think when he had already ordered the bombing; and just like in February when he told journalists he hadn't made a decision when he had already given the green light, now the White House could be playing with confusion, talking about deadlines, progress, and promises of agreement with the next decided step while reinforcements, the marines, arrive in the area. Trump is frustrated because the Epic Fury operation didn't end like the one in Venezuela. He boasts of having attacked and destroyed thousands of targets, but even by killing the supreme leader and dozens of top officials, the regime has not fallen. And he has no control over the Strait of Hormuz.
According to The New York Times, the Pentagon is "evaluating the possible deployment of a combat brigade from the 82nd Airborne Division of the Army, along with some elements of the division's staff, to support U.S. military operations in Iran." The newspaper says there are no specific orders, but that the plans, either with the Immediate Response Force of the 82nd Airborne Division, a brigade of about 3,000 soldiers, or with the marines, would have the mission of taking Jarg Island, Iran's main oil export center and a crucial piece for controlling the area and the regime's income.