Cheng Li-wun, the new leader of Taiwan's main opposition party, is packing her bags for China in a move that reopens old wounds and reactivates a familiar script in the complex relationship between Taipei and Beijing.
Formally invited by Chinese authorities, Cheng (56 years old) will lead a delegation from the Kuomintang (KMT), a historic nationalist party, from April 7 to 12, marking the first trip by a leader of this party to the mainland since 2016. In the always tense Taiwan Strait chessboard, every move is measured strategically.
The host will be Song Tao, a trusted envoy of President Xi Jinping for Taiwanese affairs. From Beijing, the message has been carefully calibrated: the ruling Communist Party wants to "promote peaceful development" of ties between both parties and both shores. Translated into Chinese political language, it implies reactivating a channel of dialogue that for years served as a pressure release valve for tensions.
The trip comes after increased military pressure from the Chinese army on the island that Beijing considers a separatist province. For Cheng's critics, her visit risks being interpreted as a sign that her party is yielding to the threat of the powerful neighbor. For her supporters, however, it is precisely in these moments when dialogue is essential.
A visit full of nods to the past
To understand the symbolic weight of the visit, one must go back to the history of the KMT. Defeated in the Chinese civil war, the party took refuge in Taiwan in 1949 and for decades maintained the pretense of being the legitimate government of all of China. With the island's democratization, the KMT evolved towards a more pragmatic position: defending the status quo, rejecting formal independence, and advocating for economic stability through direct and conciliatory contact with Beijing.
This stance crystallized during the last presidency of the KMT, that of Ma Ying-jeou (2008-2016), when the closest ties with the Chinese government were established. During his tenure, the 1992 Consensus was revived, an ambiguous formula in which both sides acknowledge the existence of "one China," although they differ in their interpretation. Those years brought about trade agreements and a summit between Ma and Xi in Singapore in 2015. However, they also sowed distrust among a part of Taiwanese society, which feared excessive dependence on Beijing.
It is precisely that balance, disrupted by the successive governments of the Democratic Progressive Party (which avoids any formula implying subordination to Beijing), that Cheng aims to restore. Since her election as head of the KMT last October, she has insisted that the 1992 Consensus is the only viable basis for dialogue. She argues that this formula reflects the majority sentiment of the population: avoiding both a declaration of independence — a red line for Beijing — and the island being absorbed by the People's Republic.
But Cheng's intended course clashes with a context that has changed in recent years, with a public opinion increasingly distant from Xi Jinping's regime. China's proposal for reunification under the "one country, two systems" principle, applied in Hong Kong, has lost appeal in Taiwan following the erosion of freedoms in the former British colony.
For most Taiwanese, as indicated by numerous surveys, that model no longer offers credible guarantees of autonomy. Beijing still considers it the preferred framework for "reunification," although Chinese leaders do not hide that, if necessary, they would use force. In other words, they would execute an invasion.
These issues underlie some of the main tensions of Cheng's trip. While the KMT advocates for dialogue without explicitly accepting the "one country, two systems" framework, the Chinese government insists that any rapprochement must be based on the premise of a single Chinese sovereignty.
The KMT leader was elected with the promise of stabilizing relations with the mainland without renouncing Taiwanese democracy. She has emphasized the need for a face-to-face meeting with Xi (which has not been confirmed by Chinese authorities). But her critics say that the upcoming trip could be exploited by Beijing to project an image of internal division in Taiwan.