The Straits of Hormuz remains closed de facto, or at least under Tehran's management. In the early hours of the ceasefire agreed upon by United States and Iran, traffic remains almost completely halted, with only a handful of vessels moving according to ship tracking websites. Most of them remain stationary, either off the coast of the United Arab Emirates at the canal's exit, or in the Gulf of Oman at its entrance. Some Iranian sources claim that Tehran would only fully open the Strait starting Friday, coinciding with the peace talks in Islamabad.
Since the ultimatum came into effect, only 10 vessels have passed through that maritime roundabout now controlled by Iran, as per the framework agreement accepted by the United States. Apart from shipping companies linked to China or Iran itself, large cargo ships or tankers of other nationalities remain anchored. It seems that no captain wants to be the first to navigate towards the maritime customs set up by the ayatollahs between the islands of Qeshm or Larak, which only open when two million dollars in yuan are deposited for either direction.
By paying the money in yuan or cryptocurrencies, the ship's captain receives a password to use in the channel between those two islands. Revolutionary Guard military personnel approach the vessel to inspect the cargo. If the password is correct, the ship can continue sailing. If not, it will have to turn back or be attacked by drones.
Recently, this reporter was on the southern shore of the Strait, where Omani fishermen assumed that the central area of the canal was mined. However, no one knows if this is true, and if so, where these mines are located. It is also unclear what role Oman will play in collecting the same toll, as the southern end of the same Strait is part of its territory, and Tehran claims the right to participate in the toll collection system.
Despite Donald Trump claiming on his social media platform Truth that the ceasefire with Iran allows for the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, the reality on the ground is slower and more cautious. Maritime transit depends not only on a tweet but on verifiable operational conditions. After weeks of bombings, with 17 tankers attacked, mines, and threats, shipping companies and captains continue to act cautiously, waiting for security to be truly guaranteed and for reliable navigation corridors to be defined.
One key factor is the role of insurers. Without war risk coverage, no tanker can operate, and these policies tend to become more expensive or withdrawn in conflict scenarios. Even with a ceasefire announced, companies need time to reassess the risk, confirm the absence of active threats, and set new premiums. Until then, many vessels remain blocked or avoid the area, explaining why the political reopening of the Strait does not immediately translate into a resumption of effective traffic.
So far, it appears that Trump's ceasefire is unilateral. The United States has stopped bombing Iran, but Iran continues to bomb Gulf States. All these Washington allies feel disappointed by Trump. They expected the United States to "finish the job" and complete its assault on the ayatollah regime. In fact, according to some sources in Saudi Arabia, the Revolutionary Guard has just attacked the East-West pipeline, connecting the Persian Gulf with the Red Sea, through which a significant portion of crude oil production was transported without having to pass through the Strait of Hormuz.
Now, all these Gulf countries not only have to continue coexisting with the same toxic neighbor who has unilaterally attacked them with missiles and drones but also Tehran may end up taking a share of their oil profits for crossing that Strait. Javier Blas, an Energy analyst for Bloomberg, states that "Hormuz will never be as crucial as it was six weeks ago: Iran's rivals will rush to build more diversion pipelines" to avoid crossing the canal.
In total, considering that 150 tankers pass through that canal daily, Iran could annually earn profits of around $60 billion.
Danny Citrinowicz, a security and Middle East expert, asserts that "by effectively acknowledging Iran's control over the strait, the United States has helped solidify this reality. Iran can now begin to reap the associated economic benefits. However, any expectation in Washington that Tehran will make concessions in the accumulation of forces or strategic capabilities is likely wrong."