All is uncertain in Washington: where the president stands, the war, peace, and the United States' relations with the rest of the world, enemies or allies. At 6:32 p.m. on Tuesday (12:32 a.m. in the Spanish mainland), Donald Trump backtracked, once again. An hour and a half before the deadline he had set to order a bombing capable of annihilating "an entire civilization," Trump reversed course and offered a two-week ceasefire to the Iranian regime, conditioned on Tehran also lifting restrictions on the passage of oil tankers through the Strait of Hormuz. Moments later, Iran's Supreme National Security Council announced that it had accepted the ceasefire and would negotiate with the United States in Islamabad starting Friday. From there, however, chaos ensued.
Less than 24 hours later, the world was trying to make sense of the Schrödinger ceasefire, which was and was not at the same time, but undoubtedly fragile and precarious. The United States paused its attacks, but Israel did not; or not all. In fact, their campaign over Lebanon intensified, resulting in over 1,100 casualties in attacks in Beirut. Furious, Tehran threatened not to open Hormuz. The White House and the president, washing their hands, stated that the agreement reached did not affect Lebanon, blaming Hezbollah, and warned that if navigation was not fully open (meaning no tolls either), there would be serious consequences.
In contrast, the spokesman for the Iranian parliament, Mohamed Ghalibaf, denounced the events as a blatant violation of the agreement, even going as far as saying that peace in Lebanon (suggested by the Pakistani mediator on Tuesday) was, in fact, the primary point of all. And no one was able to produce any common document, with all sorts of contradictory and irreconcilable versions proliferating. "I think this arises from a legitimate misunderstanding. I think the Iranians thought the ceasefire included Lebanon, and it simply was not the case. We never made that promise, we never indicated that would be the case," stated US Vice President JD Vance.
The inevitable chaos of the modern world, when peace is negotiated by ten parties via WhatsApp instead of in person, by actors with conflicting interests and no common language or shared codes of conduct. When everything is arbitrarily announced on social media in search of virality. "As things stand, there is a ceasefire that may or may not be in effect, based on terms that may or may not be commonly understood; it could lead to negotiations that may or may not actually happen, based on proposals that may or may not be a starting point," summarized analyst Ali Vaez in a tweet, a professor at Georgetown and an expert at the International Crisis Group.
Wednesday was marked by uncertainty in all directions. With Trump and his team once again discussing a possible NATO withdrawal, coinciding with the desperate visit of NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte to Washington. Questioned by Trump and European allies, all convinced that he is failing to convey the reality on the ground. "It is quite regrettable that NATO has turned its back on the American people over the past six weeks, when it is precisely the American people who have been funding their defense," anticipated White House spokesperson Karoline Leavitt, warning that the conversation with Rutte would be very "frank and sincere."
As reported by The Wall Street Journal while the meeting with the Dutchman was taking place, the Administration is seriously considering "punishing" partners who have been more reluctant to cooperate, by withdrawing troops stationed in some countries to relocate them to others seen as more cooperative, such as Lithuania, Greece, or Romania. The possibility of closing bases, for example in Spain or Germany, which have been under scrutiny in recent weeks, is also on the table. No decisions had been made in any direction at the moment, according to the sources cited.
The idea is not surprising. The president has been expressing his discontent with allies in general, and with countries like the UK, Spain, and Germany in particular, for weeks, for not allowing the use of their bases, imposing restrictions on airspace, or simply showing reservations about the Epic Fury Operation. Pressured by figures like Republican Senator Lindsey Graham or some commentators, who have labeled the Europeans' attitude as treason. In his first term, Trump withdrew 12,000 soldiers from Germany, but Joe Biden reversed that decision upon winning the 2020 elections.
With threats resurfacing as usual, in what should have been an opportunity to find a definitive solution. "The president will not respect our terms if the Iranians are not respecting theirs... The president has many options to return to war," reiterated Vice President JD Vance, chosen by Trump to lead the negotiations in Islamabad this weekend, alongside the president's son-in-law, Jared Kushner, and special envoy Steve Witkoff. "We are with all our might alongside the mujahideen of Hezbollah and will punish the Zionist enemy. The responsibility for the collapse of the ceasefire lies with the United States, which either does not want or cannot leash its rabid dog. The violation of the ceasefire by the United States will also not be tolerated," warned Mohsen Rezaei, former head of the Revolutionary Guard and advisor to Ayatollah Mujtaba Jamenei.
The past 48 hours seemed to be written by a twisted scriptwriter. Trump threatening to wipe out a civilization with a single blow only to then cling to an imprecise pause, perhaps a way out of the mess he has gotten into. "We have already met and exceeded all military objectives and are very advanced in negotiating a definitive Agreement on long-term PEACE with Iran and PEACE in the Middle East. We received a 10-point proposal from Iran and believe it constitutes a viable basis for negotiation. The United States and Iran have agreed on almost all previous points of contention, but two weeks will allow for finalizing and specifying the Agreement," stated Trump when he announced that there would be no destruction of the country, as previously speculated. "On behalf of the United States of America, as president, and also on behalf of the countries of the Middle East, it is an honor that this long-standing issue is close to being resolved."
However, throughout Wednesday, Trump spoke with many journalists, leaving all kinds of disjointed messages. For example, opening the door to a joint venture, a kind of joint business operation with the Iranians to both collect tolls from oil tankers passing through Hormuz. Similarly, he imposed potential tariff sanctions on those selling arms to Tehran, but announced a possible military cooperation with the ayatollahs to try to recover the nuclear material buried in the attacks on Iranian facilities in the summer of 2025.
Trump is a completely unpredictable leader, and at the same time extraordinarily repetitive in his strategies. Exactly what he has done in Iran, he had previously done with tariffs, for example. A threat, followed by a grandiose announcement, continued by a retraction, an extension, an even greater threat, spreading half-truths about very advanced negotiations, a brutal bluff, and a new reversal boasting of negotiations about to conclude... all thanks to his work and ultimatums.
This is what he has also done in recent weeks: with Jark Island, energy facilities, bridges, and then with the tweet anticipating a civilization-ending destruction. After swearing on the eve that there would be no new extensions or deadline extensions, and that if Iran did not surrender the only solution would be destruction, he clung to a possibility upon realizing that Iran was not surrendering, as he desired, as he hoped, as some of his advisors and Israeli allies had told him would happen.
However, Israel, seemingly uninterested in the ceasefire, has multiplied its incursions into Lebanon this Wednesday. Vance himself admitted that throughout the day there had been numerous calls between the White House and the Netanyahu government, and suggested that their main allies would restrain themselves in the area, but without making it clear whether they had given clear instructions to stop, given the danger of a total derailment of the negotiations and peace options. Vance, mocking his interlocutors by saying that perhaps the problem is that they don't speak English well and that's why they say "weird things," urged them in any case not to jeopardize the ceasefire because of what was happening in Lebanon, with a strange metaphor about his wife jumping out of a plane without a parachute after a family argument.