Monday was expected to be calm for commodity traders, with prices falling and stocks rising, but the latest news on the progress of negotiations between the US and Iran has once again soured the mood, leading investors to massively buy barrels of oil in anticipation of what may come. Iran has just confirmed an attack on a US vessel in the waters of the Strait of Hormuz. This has once again raised all alarms. It comes hours after the first (somewhat disappointing) information began to emerge about the so-called 'Freedom Project' of the Republican Administration to ensure the safe passage of large vessels through the strait.
According to sources accessed by the news agency Bloomberg, the latest ace up the sleeve of the Donald Trump administration lacks "specificity," as denounced by some of the main companies in the sector. The task is complex considering that Iran has mined the waters of the strait in recent weeks, and the military threatens to attack any vessel that is not friendly to the regime, as was evidenced this Monday.
The price of the 'Brent' barrel, a reference in Europe, has surged after both pieces of news this morning, reaching levels above $114 in futures for July, with increases nearing 4%, although they have been higher earlier this morning. The price of a barrel of oil is trading above $100 for its August and September references as well, with a 3% increase in this session as investors replenish stocks amid concerns of a longer war than expected.
Regarding talks with Iran, Trump has highlighted that the US is having "very positive" contacts with the Islamic Republic. "I believe there is still much ahead to demonstrate goodwill from all those who have been fighting so intensely for so many months," stated the White House tenant in his message.
Contacts seem to have intensified after an initial attempt at direct negotiations with the mediation of Pakistan. This Sunday, the spokesperson for the Iranian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Esmail Baqaei, reported that they have received the US response to the 14-point plan proposed by Tehran and that authorities are already studying it.
The Iranian proposal aims to "end the war" within 30 days, contrasting with Washington's proposal, which includes a two-month ceasefire. Tehran also requests guarantees of non-aggression, withdrawal of US forces from Iran's vicinity, an end to the naval blockade, or the release of frozen Iranian assets.
On the other hand, the United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations Center (UKMTO) warned on Monday that the level of "threat" to maritime security in the strategic Strait of Hormuz, the epicenter of tensions between the US and Iran due to its closure and the naval blockade imposed by the White House on Tehran, remains "critical."
Additionally, this weekend, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+) announced an increase of 188,000 barrels per day in crude oil supply for June, following an agreement reached in their first meeting after the surprising decision announced last week by the United Arab Emirates to withdraw from the group amid the ongoing war in the Middle East.