Keir Starmer has been surrounded by rivals and rebels within his own party for some time, despite having secured a broad majority at the polls just two years ago. As doubts about his leadership intensify, the Prime Minister insists that there is no vacancy at 10 Downing Street and aims to renew the Labour mandate for another five years in the upcoming general elections, scheduled no later than 2029.
"The country expects us to continue with the government's work", Starmer stated this Tuesday to his cabinet. However, as the UK Prime Minister tries to quell speculations about his future, those aspiring to succeed him have been maneuvering behind the scenes for some time. If the leadership race were to open up, other names could join the contest: from the Home Secretary, Shabana Mahmood, and the Education Secretary, Bridget Phillipson, to the British Foreign Secretary, Yvette Cooper, or the Minister for the Armed Forces, Al Carns. However, these are the four names gaining strength within the Labour Party:
All signs point to the political wind blowing in favor of the current Mayor of Greater Manchester, the so-called King of the North, despite not currently holding a seat in Westminster. Andy Burnham has been maneuvering since autumn to establish himself as an alternative to Starmer. During the Labour Party conference, the veteran socialist leader openly criticized the Prime Minister's economic plans and made it clear that he would run if a leadership race were to open up.
The former MP for Leigh - a constituency he represented between 2001 and 2017, before winning the Mayorship of the UK's second-largest metropolitan area - later tried to return to Parliament as a candidate in the Gorton and Denton by-election held in February. However, the national Labour executive, aligned with the Prime Minister, blocked his candidacy. That seat would eventually be won by the plumber and Green Party candidate, Hannah Spencer.
Since then, the former Health and Culture Minister in Gordon Brown's governments has lowered his public profile, but has managed to build a solid network of support both in the moderate left wing of the Labour Party and among centrist sectors of the party. The latest YouGov polls actually place him well ahead of any other Labour figure in terms of popularity: 34% of Britons believe he would do a better job than Starmer leading the government.
The former British Deputy Prime Minister, Angela Rayner, has not confirmed whether she would be willing to compete for the leadership to succeed her former boss, but speculations about her political ambitions have been growing since she resigned from the government last September, after it emerged that she had underpaid taxes for the purchase of an apartment in Brighton. In fact, in January, an unfinished website was published announcing the launch of her campaign to lead the Labour Party, further fueling rumors about her aspirations for Downing Street.
The MP for Ashton-under-Lyne often describes herself as a "warrior for the working class" and maintains a close relationship with trade unions, where she began her career before joining the Labour Party. The moderate wing of Labour sees her as a counterbalance to Starmer's technocratic leadership, which many attribute to the party's growing disconnect with the electorate. However, even her allies acknowledge that launching a candidacy will be difficult while she remains under investigation by the British tax authorities for underpaying around £40,000 in taxes related to the property purchase.
"The Labour Party exists to improve the lives of the working class. And that is not happening fast enough. It has to change now", Rayner warned on Sunday during her speech at the CWU union congress in Bournemouth, where she called for a change in the Government's strategy, with or without Starmer. The former Deputy Prime Minister also made it clear that she considers it a mistake that the Prime Minister blocked Andy Burnham's return to Parliament.
Rayner's chances of winning the Labour leadership are favored by Burnham's exclusion from Westminster. According to the latest YouGov polls, 15% of Britons believe that the MP would do a better job than Starmer, a figure surpassed only by Burnham himself.
The most veteran of the contenders, Ed Miliband, previously led the Labour Party between 2010 and 2015, during David Cameron's years in Downing Street. Perhaps that is why he is also the most unexpected candidate, more than a decade after leading Labour to electoral defeat against the Conservatives. However, during this time, the Energy Secretary has established himself within the party as the main advocate for green transition and the goal of net zero emissions.
Additionally, he still retains some appeal among younger voters, as was evident in 2015 with the #Milifandom phenomenon, a viral campaign launched by a 17-year-old student to express admiration for Miliband and show support for Labour policies.
Although he has not confirmed whether he will run in a potential internal contest, several British media outlets claim that Miliband asked Starmer last week to set a timetable for his departure, a possibility that the Prime Minister flatly rejects.
Wes Streeting, the current Health Secretary, is considered the candidate with the best chances of succeeding Keir Starmer from within the current cabinet. Positioned in the more centrist wing of the party, Streeting has cultivated the image of a charismatic minister capable of connecting with the electorate. In recent months, he has also hinted at his disagreements with the Government's leadership and even denounced the "toxic culture" of Downing Street after internal leaks targeting him surfaced last November.
Earlier this year, when doubts about Starmer's political future were at their peak following the controversial appointment of an old friend of Jeffrey Epstein as the ambassador to the United States, the MP for Ilford North made the controversial decision to publish private communications between him and Peter Mandelson containing harsh criticisms of the economic policy and the Prime Minister's stance on the Middle East. The release of those messages broke the principle of collective responsibility of the cabinet - something that would normally have led to immediate dismissal - but Streeting defended his decision, claiming he needed to respond to the "defamations" about his relationship with the Labour leader.
Streeting's main obstacle to winning the leadership remains the perception within parts of Labour that he is too right-wing for the party, as well as the widespread feeling that he still lacks sufficient support to launch a solid candidacy. The latest YouGov poll does not favor him either: only 13% of Britons think he is capable of leading the country better than Starmer.