Neither the massive electricity consumption needed for artificial intelligence nor the increase in electric vehicles. The real challenge for the global energy sector is quietly brewing in households. The growth in electricity demand from air conditioners in developing countries and the electrification of heating systems in more advanced economies will be the two major drivers boosting energy consumption globally until 2040, surpassing even AI and cars.
This is the main conclusion of the report "Global Energy and Materials Outlook 2026" by the consulting giant Bain & Company, accessed exclusively by EL MUNDO, projecting that global electricity demand will surge between 40% and 70% by 2040. Buildings and industry will account for over 60% of total consumption during this period.
The demand for electric vehicles and data centers will grow faster - at 11% and 8% annually, respectively - but they will not be the factors putting the most strain on the supply. "They represent only a small part of the total growth," the consultancy analyzes.
The greatest cumulative increase will come from household electricity consumption. The key lies in the installation of new air conditioners in buildings in emerging countries, for example in Asia, where millions of families will have access to cooling systems for the first time. This is the case in India, where summers are arriving earlier and heatwaves have intensified, pushing temperatures up to 47°C in certain areas.
In addition, the residential sector in advanced economies, such as Europe, is demanding more electricity as more and more appliances and systems switch from batteries and fossil fuels to the plug. This includes most appliances and increasingly heating systems, where the consultancy foresees a rise in the use of heat pumps as a replacement for gas, oil, or coal boilers.
The consultancy considers three possible scenarios. One where geopolitics harden and countries perpetuate their current dynamics. Another where different regions diverge in their climate policies. Lastly, a "low-carbon" scenario, the most ambitious for the green agenda, where there is a massive deployment of renewables. According to Bain & Company, none of these scenarios will allow for compliance with the Paris Agreement. In fact, the report anticipates that the planet's temperature will increase between 2.1 and 2.9°C by the year 2100.
Renewables will grow strongly, much more than any other energy source. Wind and solar power will continue to lead by a wide margin and multiply their share in the global energy matrix by three to seven times, depending on the scenario.
In the coming years, wind and solar will become the cheapest technologies in many markets where they are not yet. However, neither this nor the current shock in the global flow of oil and natural gas due to the war in the Middle East allow the consultancy to envision a world independent of fossil fuels.
"In all cases, the supply of fossil fuels [oil, gas, and coal] continues to represent a significant part of the total supply," they conclude. Their weight in the matrix is predominant in the first two scenarios (72-67%) and would account for over half (52%) of final energy consumption globally even in the low-carbon scenario.
In the renewable horizon, there are obstacles that are no longer related to cost. Now, green promoters face more diverse and harder-to-overcome barriers because they do not depend directly on them or the sector itself. Delays in connecting plants to the power grid, limitations of the power systems to absorb all their production, delivery times for certain key materials, lack of specialized labor, difficulties in obtaining financing, or bottlenecks in the critical minerals supply chain are among these challenges.
Materials such as copper, iron, lithium, or cobalt will experience "gaps between supply and demand" in the next decade. Renewable companies will have to compete for these minerals with other strategic companies and, possibly, with greater access to capital such as the defense industry, major tech companies, or electric vehicle manufacturers. According to the consultancy, this will be a "critical point for national security, trade, and industrial policy" until 2040.
Regarding the future of nuclear energy, the consultancy is clear. "Nuclear capacity grows in all our scenarios and competes with other grid stabilization technologies (batteries, pumped hydro, and gas)," they assert. They claim that for most countries with nuclear power plants, it is the "least costly" source of energy.
While the consultancy admits that building new plants would be one of the most expensive options, they clarify that "it still proves advantageous compared to more variable renewable energies when their system costs are included in the total cost of electricity." In other words, the costs associated with managing electric systems with that increasing volume of renewables could offset the advantage of green sources.
However, the consultancy doubts the future of natural gas and warns investors: "It is not a safe bet." In fact, depending on the scenario, they foresee that demand for this fuel could fluctuate by up to 20%, as it is "highly sensitive to macroeconomic conditions, national policy decisions, and the cost of alternatives such as renewables with storage or nuclear energy." This, they claim, increases the risk of being trapped in "stranded or underutilized assets." "Crises will continue. Fundamentals will remain," they conclude.