With 1540 days of conflict, the Russian invasion of Ukraine is heading towards a duration comparable to World War I, which lasted 1567 days. In these four and a half years, we have seen various types of wars consumed in a relentless technological race that has left devastated regions, empty state arsenals, and casualty figures only comparable to the major battles of World War II.
During the month of March, the last for which we have reliable figures, several circumstances have emerged indicating a shift in the tide of the invasion. After the harshest winter for Ukraine in the ongoing war, with entire cities without power and heating due to the Kremlin's deep attacks, spring finally arrived for Kiev's troops: last March was the first month in which Kiev managed to advance more square kilometers than Russia on the front since the summer of 2023. The Institute for the Study of War estimates 113 square kilometers recovered by Ukraine compared to meager Russian advances. While not a significant number, it is symbolic, especially because after the winter, there was talk of a Russian offensive that is currently performing as poorly as all previous ones.
This is not the only figure indicating the severe attrition experienced by the Russian army after over four years of war filled with failed assaults and absurd sacrifices to advance at a snail's pace. Moscow no longer recruits volunteers at the same rate as they lose them on the front lines.
While in previous years they managed to recruit around 50,000 new members per month, paying increasing amounts of money, that number has decreased in the past year to 35,000. In parallel, Ukraine claims that the average casualties inflicted on the Russians were around 30,000 every 30 days, but now that number has risen to 35,000 Russian soldiers and foreign mercenaries, which matches the losses. Ukraine's Minister of Digital Transformation, Myjailo Fedorov, states that the goal for this year is to inflict 50,000 enemy casualties monthly. This is the number that, he says, will lead the Kremlin to a real peace negotiation.
For the first time this year, Russian media outlets Mediazona and Meduza have updated the overall estimate of Russia's real losses in its war against Ukraine. This data is based on the Register of Successions and reflects the number of Russian male citizens aged 18 to 59 who have died since the start of the large-scale invasion until the end of 2025. The confirmed death toll is 352,000. These media outlets assume that the actual number is much higher, but these are verified deaths with names and surnames. If the ratio between deaths and injuries in this war is one to three, we are talking about casualties (deaths, injuries, and missing) exceeding one million.
What has led to further increases in monthly Russian casualties, which were already high compared to wars in Afghanistan or Chechnya, for example? One of the reasons is the reorganization of Ukrainian troops into army corps, a process that has taken time but avoids the discoordination between independent brigades defending specific sectors, through which Russian units were infiltrating. Now, with centralized command, the defense is more effective.
The second major reason is that Ukraine has managed to balance the number of drones used on the front by Russia. If one of Vladimir Putin's objectives was to demilitarize Ukraine, it can be said that today Kiev has one of the largest arms industries in the world thanks to funding from its allies.
In March, for the first time, Ukraine surpassed Russia in the number of long-range attacks on oil infrastructure in multiple regions, and oil export centers are being increasingly targeted. On the battlefield, Ukraine is increasingly using ground drones to compensate for losses in its infantry. With these armed robots equipped with machine guns, their army can cover long stretches of the front line without risking soldiers in the so-called "annihilation zone", where anything moving is destroyed within seconds by kamikaze drones.
According to the Financial Times, Russian generals have convinced Putin that their forces will take control of the entire Donbass by autumn, a promise they have been repeating since 2022.
Military analyst Konrad Muzyka from Rochan Consulting, believes that "there are several reasons for optimism. Ukrainian actions in Zaporiyia earlier this year have clearly thwarted Russian plans." Dimitro Kuleba, the former Ukrainian Foreign Minister, states that "Putin miscalculated on all fronts, partially in some cases, completely in others. Moscow is still not losing the war. But it is losing its war model, and that failure is becoming visible." According to former marine and analyst Rob Lee, Moscow's problem is that "each offensive requires replacing huge losses to achieve minimal gains," a dynamic increasingly reminiscent of the attrition wars of the 20th century.