United States and Iran have reached a preliminary agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz in exchange for the lifting of the American blockade and Tehran's commitment to dispose of its highly enriched uranium. The text, which defers a more in-depth negotiation on the nuclear program or the stockpiles of armaments for later, is subject to final approval from President Donald Trump and Iranian religious and military leaders, which could take hours or days. "Negotiations are progressing in an orderly and constructive manner, and I have informed my representatives not to rush to close a deal, as time is on our side. The blockade will remain in full force until an agreement is reached, certified, and signed. Both parties must take their time and ensure that everything goes well. There can be no mistakes! Our relationship with Iran is becoming much more professional and productive. However, they must understand that they cannot develop or acquire a nuclear weapon or bomb," Trump wrote today on his social media.
Despite the leader's words, American and Israeli hawks, politicians, and analysts in favor of a hardline stance in general, and against Iran in particular, are very nervous and angry. Trump launched the war promising Iranians that help "was on the way" and freedom was inevitable. That's not the case. Trump killed Ayatollah Khamenei and part of the country's leadership, but the regime is still there. With fewer ships, planes, and missiles, but still there. Furthermore, the agreement aims to fully reopen the Strait of Hormuz, which was only closed... after the bombings. An open strait with greater control by the Revolutionary Guard is worse than what was in place in February. Similarly, the nuclear issue is left for later, and Iran could gain access to billions of dollars that have been frozen in other countries for years.
The feeling in Washington is one of surprise and disappointment. "The rumored 60-day ceasefire —with the belief that Iran will ever engage in good faith— was a disaster. Everything achieved by Operation Epic Fury would have been in vain!" lamented Republican Senator Roger Wicker.
A few weeks ago, Tehran's red lines focused on the nuclear program, just as they have for the past 15 years. But now, after what religious and military authorities inevitably consider a success, a test of resilience and strength against a brutal U.S. deployment in the region, priorities seem to have shifted. Now Iran has much better cards and can afford to negotiate the situation in the Strait of Hormuz, aiming for economic benefits that were unthinkable not long ago. Then, and only then, they are willing to sit down for deep nuclear negotiations.
"paying the Revolutionary Guard"
"The proposed agreement with Iran seems to be straight out of the manual of Wendy Sherman, Robert Malley, and Ben Rhodes: Paying the Revolutionary Guard to build a program of weapons of mass destruction and terrorize the world. It is not even remotely America First, it is a clear 'open the damn strait.' Deny Iran access to money. Eliminate enough Iranian capacity so that it cannot threaten our allies in the region. This should have been done a long time ago," lamented Mike Pompeo, who was Trump's Secretary of State in his first term, mentioning Obama's top negotiators in the past.
"If an agreement is reached to end the Iranian conflict because it is believed that the Strait of Hormuz cannot be protected from Iranian terrorism and that Iran still has the capacity to destroy the Gulf's main oil infrastructure, then Iran will be perceived as a dominant force. This combination of Iran being perceived as having the ability to terrorize the Strait perpetually and inflict massive damage on the Gulf's oil infrastructure represents a major shift in the balance of power in the region and will eventually be a nightmare for Israel. It also makes one wonder why the war started in the first place," criticized powerful Senator Lindsey Graham, one of Israel's main supporters.
"ACCEPTING URANIUM IN IRAN?"
If the outcome is finalized on the outlined terms, given Trump's urgency to be able to claim victory and move on from a conflict that has skyrocketed inflation and made it very difficult for millions of citizens to afford gasoline, the conclusion will have been a failure. Because instead of forcing concessions on the main issue, the nuclear program that has obsessed Trump for decades, the conflict has effectively increased Iran's influence in the region and in the markets, changing its relationship with its neighbors and making the removal of the bottleneck for world oil a much higher priority than the nuclear issue. "Are we now talking about a position where we could accept that nuclear material remains in Iran? What sense does that make?" Republican Senator Thom Tillis questioned. "There are many things that need to be explained."
"Epic Fury lasted 40 days. The truce has lasted 60. The U.S. and Israel's armies won the war, but if the reported terms are accurate, the regime is now winning the truce. Another 60-day extension would only deepen Tehran's advantage. The only place where Iran ever beats the United States is at the negotiating table. Every single time," lamented Mark Dubowitz, executive director of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, in two of the dozens of tweets posted in the last hours about how what is now on the table seems even worse to them than the JCPOA, the agreement reached by Obama that they criticized for years.
Experts in the region precisely state that the agreement that seems about to be announced should not actually be compared to the JCPOA because it is more of an interim step similar to the 2013 Joint Plan of Action than what was signed by Obama, which covered all angles. "I am deeply concerned about what we are hearing about an 'agreement' pushed by some voices in the administration. President Trump's decision to attack Iran was the most consequential decision of his second term. He was right to do so, and we achieved extraordinary military results, including the destruction of all their missiles and drones, and the sinking of their entire navy. If the result of all that is that the Iranian regime —still led by Islamists chanting 'death to America'— now receives billions of dollars, can enrich uranium and develop nuclear weapons, and has effective control over the Strait of Hormuz, then that result would be a disastrous mistake," warned Senator and former presidential candidate Ted Cruz on Saturday.