There was a time when the Chinese Communist Party turned reproduction into a state matter: fines, neighborhood surveillance, forced abortions in some periods, and a one-child policy presented as a necessary condition to escape poverty. Now, half a century after that unprecedented social experiment, Beijing faces the opposite problem: fewer cradles and too many elderly.
For the first time since statistical records exist, China, home to one-sixth of the world's population, has more people over 65 than children. The latest official data shows that 15.87% of a population of over 1.4 billion people are over that age, compared to 15.25% of children under 14 years old.
The difference may seem small. But its symbolism is enormous. It means that the world's second-largest economy has crossed a demographic threshold that transforms pensions, consumption, economic growth, and even the relationship between generations. The new figures, collected by the National Bureau of Statistics, come from a small sample taken at the end of last year by officials from the family planning departments.
The Chinese population decreased for the first time in 2022 and has continued to decline since then. The birth rate, at 6.77 births per 1,000 inhabitants, slightly increased in the latest count but remains far from historical levels.
The latest survey also revealed that the working-age population is decreasing more and more: people between 15 and 59 years old represent 61.89% of the total population, compared to 67.33% a decade ago. The size of families is also plummeting, with an average of 2.52 people per household compared to 3.10 ten years ago.
The old Chinese social contract that has underpinned the political stability of the regime is beginning to crack. China now has over 220 million people over 65 years old and projections suggest that by 2050, almost a third of the population will belong to that group.
For decades, the so-called demographic dividend - millions of young workers fueling factories and exports - was one of the foundations of China's rise. That engine is losing strength. The pressure on the pension system is rapidly increasing. Some analyses estimate that public spending to support social funds will continue to grow as the contributor base shrinks.
Beijing is now trying to correct with incentives what it previously regulated with prohibitions. The one-child policy ended in 2015. Then came two allowed children, then three. Later, subsidies, extended parental leave, and local assistance were introduced.
Xi Jinping's government is constantly reforming its family policies with all kinds of incentives. One of the first this year was that all medical expenses related to childbirth would be free and all prenatal expenses would be reimbursed. This was accompanied by a national childcare subsidy program: 3,600 yuan (around 450 euros) annually for each child under three years old.
This year also saw another more viral measure on social media: for the first time since 1993, condoms and contraceptives are subject to a 13% VAT. The price increase was included in a law that ranged from tax reductions for childcare to "marriage introduction services," essentially subsidizing traditional matchmakers who now work in more formal marriage agencies.
The Chinese government, as part of a growing array of measures to curb the demographic decline, launched a new national campaign to certify cities and companies as "birth-friendly environments." Chinese officials have explained that the aim is to reduce the costs associated with childbirth, upbringing, and education, as well as to improve work-life balance, while considering deeper reforms in the face of a fertility rate that may have dropped to one child per woman, well below the replacement level.
Among the latest proposals is the idea of decoupling motherhood from marriage - allowing more rights for single women who want to have children - a concept that challenges traditional norms in a conservative society. In the first quarter of the year, marriage registrations fell by 6.2% year-on-year, to 1.69 million couples, the lowest level for that period since the pandemic.