There is an 80% probability that El Niño —the natural warming phenomenon in the eastern Pacific— will return this summer and raise global temperatures, as warned by the UN. The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) specifies that this cyclical event will be "at least moderate," although several scientific projections have warned that it could be the strongest in the last two decades.
"The conditions created by El Niño are like adding fuel to the fire of an increasingly warmer world," stated António Guterres, Secretary-General of the UN. "The impacts will be greater, they will reach further, and they will cross borders at a devastating speed."
The last El Niño episode was recorded between 2023 and 2024, and scientists believe it contributed to making that last year the hottest ever recorded since the beginning of the industrial era.
The impact usually results in intense rains in the intertropical and equatorial zone, from southeast Asia to South America. Additionally, the warming of the water favors the formation of cyclones and hurricanes, an effect that can spread to the Atlantic.
Last week, the WMO and the British Met Office warned that the El Niño phenomenon will likely hit in 2027, leading to some of the hottest years before the end of the decade. However, new projections anticipate the date to be September 2026 (with an 80% chance) or December (with a 90% chance).
Since April, temperatures in the eastern Pacific have been increasing. Measurements confirm that a change in wind patterns is pushing warm waters along the tropical ocean zone.
"We have reasons to believe that the phenomenon will manifest with great intensity and temperature records could be broken," declared Met Office climatologist Adam Scaife to the BBC, responsible for monthly predictions.
The news about the possible "early arrival" of El Niño comes a week after the "heat dome" that hit Spain, Portugal, Italy, France, and the UK. This phenomenon, caused by a mass of hot air from North Africa trapped by high pressures, resulted in temperatures 10 to 15 degrees higher than usual and temperature records in May.