Technological advances in the Ukraine-Russia war become obsolete every two or three weeks, either because the enemy adapts and copies them, or because even more disruptive advances render the previous ones outdated. In an ecosystem of young and agile companies, unknown until a few months ago, highly creative and competitive, the process from the design table, testing the first prototype on the battlefield, and returning to the factory to refine deficiencies and produce it on a large scale sometimes takes only a few days, something unthinkable in the bureaucratic European Union, where any certification, especially related to weaponry, can take years.
An influential study published this month by the Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR) in London flips the usual narrative about Ukraine: instead of portraying it as a country in need of help that will end up being a burden for Europe, economist Yuriy Gorodnichenko, a professor at the University of California, Berkeley, and a native of Ukraine, argues that Kiev is the most valuable strategic asset that Europe has at its disposal.
The document, titled The Wild East: Ukraine and the reconfiguration of Europe, is part of the CEPR's Europe 2050 initiative, led by economists such as Olivier Blanchard, Pascal Lamy, and Enrico Letta, and will be the basis for the organization's upcoming Paris 5 report. The study's most provocative argument pertains to European security. With the US military guarantee in question under the Trump administration, Gorodnichenko argues that Ukraine is currently the only country on the continent with a real army capable of resisting Russia. The data he presents is compelling: according to Gallup surveys, only 14% of Italians and 23% of Germans say they are willing to fight for their country, compared to 62% of Ukrainians. And when military spending is adjusted for purchasing power parity, Russia's defense budget quadruples that of any individual European nation, making it difficult to argue that Europe could defend itself alone without Ukraine as a shield.
In the technological realm, the report describes how the war has turned Ukraine into the world's largest real-time research and development laboratory, with over 1,500 companies specializing in drones, decentralized artificial intelligence, electronic warfare, and robotics. Gorodnichenko points out that Ukrainian large-caliber cannons cost 2.3 million euros per unit, compared to the 17 million euros for the German equivalent, and that Ukraine already produces more artillery per year than all European countries combined. This efficiency, combined with the government application Diia - considered the most advanced digital governance ecosystem in the world - makes Ukraine the technological partner that Europe needs to not fall behind the United States and China, as warned by the 2024 Draghi report.
The reconstruction of Ukraine, estimated between 500 billion and one trillion dollars according to the World Bank and Gorodnichenko himself, is presented in the report as the largest investment opportunity available in the European continent. Rebuilding entire cities from scratch - many have been practically wiped off the map, and entire regions in the east and south have been left in ruins - allows for the deployment of smart city technologies, renewable energies, and new logistical infrastructures on a scale impossible in consolidated European cities. The pipelines that used to transport Russian gas westward could be converted into a green hydrogen corridor. And the reintegration of nearly a million veterans with experience in drones, cybersecurity, and combat logistics represents, according to the report, an extraordinarily valuable human capital for European defense and technology industries, which are facing a severe shortage of specialized talent.
The study does not shy away from the political difficulties of integration. European farmers already protested when Brussels granted Ukraine temporary access to the EU market, and full accession will generate tensions in sectors that cannot compete with Ukrainian costs. Gorodnichenko proposes managing these frictions with the same instruments that the EU used in previous enlargement rounds: grace periods, gradual market opening, and structural funds for the most affected communities. The conclusion is unequivocal: "Without a strong Ukraine, there is no strong Europe. Anchoring a nation of 40 million people, battle-tested and highly motivated, within the European economic and security architecture is one of those opportunities that history rarely offers a second time."
The study reflects an increasingly shared analysis in European institutions. Janis Emmanouilidis, Director of Studies at the European Policy Centre in Brussels, believes that "after four years of large-scale Russian aggression, Kyiv's path to the EU is inseparable from Europe's own security and credibility. A faster accession of Ukraine is not only the right thing to do. It is the strategic response demanded by the uncertain and dangerous world facing Europeans," Emmanouilidis wrote in February 2026, endorsing the accelerated accession plan that Brussels has internally dubbed "reverse enlargement," which would allow Ukraine to join the EU before meeting all usual technical requirements.
Gitanas Nauseda, President of Lithuania, stated at the support summit for Ukraine held in Kyiv: "Europe's security depends on Ukraine's security. That's why let's accelerate Ukraine's accession to the EU." Nauseda proposed January 1, 2030, as the official date of entry and urged European leaders to make Ukraine's path to the bloc "inevitable." Timothy Garton Ash, historian and political analyst at Oxford, wrote in The Guardian: "There are two good reasons to accept Ukraine as a member of the EU: because Ukraine has earned it, and because this responds to the long-term strategic interest of all Europeans. The second reason is even more important than the first," adding that an expanded EU would be in a better position to confront China and Russia.
Ukraine applied for EU membership on February 28, 2022, just days after the start of the Russian invasion. In June 2022, it obtained candidate country status, and in December 2023, EU leaders agreed to start formal accession negotiations. These officially began in June 2024 at the first Intergovernmental Conference.
The major bottleneck preventing progress was Budapest. Ukraine has accelerated its accession process after unlocking a key loan following Viktor Orban's fall in Hungary, which removed the main political veto blocking the negotiations. The Hungarian change came after an agreement with Kyiv to expand linguistic, educational, cultural, and political rights for the over 100,000 members of the Hungarian minority in the Transcarpathia region.
Ukraine is in a hurry, but Brussels follows much slower bureaucratic dynamics. Full accession requires years of negotiations, internal reforms, and unanimity among the 27. The immediate focus is on whether the June 18 summit unlocks the opening of new negotiation clusters. Ukraine is pushing to open the six thematic blocks this month, but officials and diplomats in Brussels believe it will take more time, possibly until September. European Council President António Costa stated that the lifting of the Hungarian veto could allow Ukraine to close several chapters immediately after opening them, given the technical work already done.
Ahead of the summit, Paris and Berlin called for the launch of a "structured gradual integration" process to incentivize reforms in candidate countries in exchange for access to some EU benefits, including greater access to the single market, while progressing towards full membership without voting rights for the time being. However, Ukrainian President Zelenski was not very receptive to the idea. The most optimistic date being considered for full accession remains 2030, and that's only if the process is exceptionally accelerated.
In any case, even if only mentally, Ukrainians have been assimilating the European Union in one way or another for decades. Many young people in Ukraine's major cities first encountered the Western world from behind the Iron Curtain in clandestine rooms where VHS tapes featuring Hollywood blockbusters and music videos by Western stars were screened. Star Wars, Indiana Jones, Michael Jackson, and Madonna arrived in Ukraine in the 1980s in this way, and in the process left a lot of money in the hands of figures like former Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko, whose first business was the illegal screening of movies. Without realizing it, Tymoshenko planted the first seed in Kyiv that led many teenagers to begin idolizing what lay beyond the Iron Curtain. Without realizing it, Tymoshenko accelerated the process.