Trump has spread the agreement with Iran with the triumphalism that characterizes him. Do you think this time it will materialize or could it still derail?
There is no trust between the parties. Therefore, the key lies in knowing whether there will finally be economic relief for the Islamic Republic or not. According to the memorandum presented by Iran, the new negotiators dealing with the United States would be prioritizing economic aspects over the nuclear issue. They need to deliver internal results to steer a new balance of power. If Trump opts for negotiation, progress would be marked by economic concessions in exchange for concessions on the nuclear issue. It is still unclear whether Trump will yield in this regard, as there may also be internal pressure because various sectors within Washington could criticize the negotiations and portray the agreement as a defeat for the United States militarily with geopolitical implications against its rivals, especially China. It remains to be seen if he can normalize the situation in the Strait of Hormuz. Trump's current goal is its unblocking. And we will have to wait to see what will happen after the World Cup. However, to influence the new Iranian landscape, negotiation could be an opportunity, as confrontation generates internal cohesion while talks cause division within the regime. Since the Supreme Leader, Mojtaba Jamenei, has not made any public appearances yet and there is uncertainty about his current status, negotiations present an opportunity for the more pragmatic factions while posing a risk for the hardliners. If the negotiations fail, the militarization of the political system will take center stage in political action, leading to a closing of ranks.
What role will Israel play, not satisfied with the end of the offensive against its great enemy?
Israel's strategic rival is Iran. Both aspire to dominate the region. The confrontation will continue. According to the Iranian memorandum, Tehran would not back down on supporting Hezbollah or Hamas. This remains a red line for Israel and would justify the confrontation between the two countries. It remains to be seen how Netanyahu will react during these negotiations, as he will try to hinder any dialogue between the US and Iran. Israel's goal is the Islamic Republic, and it will continue to seek political instability in Iran.
Details of the peace plan are known, but substantial aspects such as the Iranian nuclear program seem to be in limbo. Is it possible to address in 60 days what had not been achieved in so many months?
It is complicated, as the Islamic Republic has stated that it will not back down on the issue of uranium enrichment, something that Trump and Israel demand. In the last agreement reached by Obama, negotiations lasted approximately two years. Therefore, any stagnation in this regard will be used to justify the confrontation between Israel and Iran and a return to hostilities. Much will depend on whether there are advancements in the economic aspect and if there is relief from sanctions, similar to what happened during the Obama Administration. The Islamic Republic is undergoing internal reorganization. It remains to be seen if a pragmatic leadership can finally be consolidated in Iran that prioritizes the economic over the ideological with the consent of the military apparatus through these negotiations. And, above all, if normalcy returns to the Strait of Hormuz.
How do you view the role Pakistan has taken on as a mediator? Does the agreement give breathing space to the Gulf Petro-monarchies, or does it leave them in a state of fear in the face of an Iran that is portraying the pact as its great triumph against all?
Both Pakistan and the Gulf States demonstrate their ability to be effective mediators. Pakistan's role reflects that effective mediation is shifting towards Asia, moving away from Europe. The Gulf countries are the ones most affected economically and share geographical space, so they will prioritize stability as their security is not guaranteed. The presence of the United States in the region will not disappear, and Israel will not give up its aspirations to influence the dynamics of the Persian Gulf. This keeps the threat of the Islamic Republic to its neighbors present.
Has the opposition and the general population within Iran once again been completely abandoned? Was it a pipe dream to expect a regime change?
Throughout history, the geopolitical interests of powers do not usually align with those of the people. In the case of Iran, major world powers have always tried to shape the country's political future for their own benefit. The Islamic Republic governs only for a minority and remains in power thanks mainly to loyalties, particularly from the armed forces. The majority of the population rejects the Islamic Republic, and despite war and limitations, continues to demand freedom, dignity, economic opportunities, rights, justice, and equality. The future of Iran lies with the Iranians and not with foreign interventions.
How do you see the regional reconfiguration in the medium term if the agreement comes into effect?
For now, Israel, the United States, and Iran are buying time to assess their strategies. Everyone is watching the negotiations unfold. There is still a long way to go and nothing concrete. Incentives tend to change as time passes since each party will seek opportunities to benefit from the situation. There is a risk that one party may concede more than the other. Negotiation is successful when there is cooperation. However, with such complex issues and red lines, preferences tend to change. Everything will depend on whether there are concrete advancements. Otherwise, confrontation may resurface.