Potential peace talks between Ukraine and Russia threaten to divide the European Union before even starting. Even before any real gesture from Vladimir Putin. Many voices in the EU consider that this may never happen. However, after it was revealed that the cabinet of the President of the European Council, António Costa, had "brief contacts" with the Kremlin, countries have accelerated their movements and started proposing possible intermediaries or mediators, as well as pointing to themselves.
This is the case with France and Germany, countries that want to lead the potential talks along with the UK. The so-called E-3. Three powers speaking directly with Putin, with sufficient authority and also part of the volunteer coalition. That is the theory, at least. However, there are several issues. One of them, as highlighted by the Prime Minister of Belgium, Bart de Wever, at the end of the Thursday session of the European Council, is that the UK is not part of the EU, and only institutions can represent the Union. The Prime Minister of Italy, Giorgia Meloni, strongly opposes Emmanuel Macron and Friedrich Merz leading the process without her presence.
"Regarding the candidate, I have seen and read that many names are circulating. But if we want to achieve a result, I will say this: I believe it will be extremely difficult to propose a person from one of the largest countries in Europe," she stated after the G-7 meeting. "Such a designation, in my opinion, will only complicate reaching an agreement, so I would look towards the medium-sized states of the European Union," she added. Meloni is upset with Macron and Merz and will not make it easy.
Spain, along with other countries like Belgium, has already expressed support for Costa. Also, within the Council, the Spanish Prime Minister, Pedro Sánchez, endorsed the initiative started by the Portuguese, but made it clear that "no peace conversation has been initiated, nor any peace negotiation, it is simply a diplomatic channel, I believe it is perfectly understandable and necessary." "We are not mediators because we have been supporting Ukraine for over four years, its defense of territorial integrity, and its right to exist and not be invaded by an aggressor like Putin's Russia," he added.
There is another stance: that of the Baltic and Nordic countries, the majority of which directly consider any attempt at rapprochement as futile, and many of whom are not pleased that Costa took this step without consulting the 27. In the north, they argue that Putin will never truly want to reach an agreement, and any move is a waste of time. The Defense Commissioner, Andrius Kubilius, pointed out a few weeks ago in this newspaper that for any possible conversation, the first thing needed is a profound change from the Russian leader. This is the same sentiment shared by many capitals close to Russia, albeit expressed less directly.
Among these countries, there is a conviction that the best strategy the EU can follow is to advance Ukraine's accession. This is best for Kiev's security but, above all, for the security of European territory. At least in this aspect, there are no doubts: now that former Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban is no longer there, there are no more vetoes. However, this does not mean there is total agreement, of course. That wouldn't be the European Union.
Volodymyr Zelensky was at the same Council on Thursday and urged European leaders to open new negotiation clusters or blocks in the summer. This was also mentioned by the President of the Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, but among the countries, which ultimately have the final say, there is not the same level of conviction. Merz made it clear: "The process will be long," and many reject giving additional facilities to Ukraine. However, in comparison and considering past events, this is a minor divergence by European standards.