As if it were an apocalyptic prophecy of Nostradamus, in Japan, the fourth world power by GDP and ranked 16th among full democracies globally according to prestigious indices such as The Economist Intelligence Unit, they have been entangled in a Byzantine debate since the beginning of this century in search of a way out of the political maze that the future of the oldest reigning dynasty on Earth is not guaranteed.
The scarcity of males in an imperial family where women are excluded from the succession order has become the biggest institutional problem in a country as ultra-modern economically and technologically as it is conservative socially and politically. Finding a solution once and for all seems to be the goal of both the current Prime Minister, Sanae Takaichi, and her party, the Liberal Democratic Party, which, along with its minority partner, the Ishin party, swept the legislative elections in February surpassing the threshold of 300 seats in the Lower House, exceeding the two-thirds majority that allows for major reforms.
And so, days ago, the Diet - the bicameral Assembly - reached a consensus on amending the Imperial House Law to ensure a sustainable number of dynasty members. With this draft on the table, Takaichi's government aims to draft a bill for approval before the end of the session in July. If successful, it would be a historic measure. However, the debate in the media, opposition parties, and the public about the announced plans is so intense that it is hard to believe that the revision of the Imperial House Law will not end up like all previous attempts since the early 2000s, that is, in vain. As time passes, the aging of the Yamato dynasty is accompanied by the serious threat of its extinction.
After long debates inherited from one legislature to another, the only thing that the Japanese lawmakers have agreed on this June is to accept two of the proposals considered to ensure an adequate number of active members of the Crown. One is to allow imperial princesses to maintain their status and continue as members of the institution after marriage. Until now, female members of the dynasty become anonymous citizens and are forced to bid farewell to the Court forever upon marriage. The other measure that has garnered consensus from the Diet parties is, however, incomprehensible to a large part of Japanese society: it involves allowing the adoption by the Crown of male descendants from the 11 lineages that lost their imperial status in 1947, with the enactment of the Constitution imposed by the US on Japan after its defeat in World War II.
From the perspective of Western democracies like ours, the latter may seem like a far-fetched idea. In fact, in Japan, it does not appear to be a very understandable measure for the citizens either. But since the political class remains steadfast in its rejection of granting succession rights to women and in not allowing them to pass them on, and now there is only one male in the institution expected to have children like an imperial stallion and produce the highest number of descendants possible, Prince Hisahito (19 years old), destined to become the future emperor, the princely conversion of descendants of former associates to the Chrysanthemum Throne is seen as an emergency solution.
The two measures seem like solutions to ensure that the imperial family has a sufficient number of members to continue carrying out the high functions of the Crown smoothly, which go far beyond the institutional representation framework typical of other royal families in modern parliamentary monarchies. In Japan, for instance, princes and princesses must participate each year in a myriad of Shinto rituals and ceremonies that require an adequate palace bench. However, these measures are controversial. Those who question whether females should remain princesses after marriage wonder how it will affect the dignity of the Crown if their husbands and children are mere commoners - not to mention the potential conflicts of interest that could arise; there is much fear that cases like Urdangarin in Spain could occur in Japan. As for the adoption of descendants of the abolished former royal lineages, it is already very complex for boys born as anonymous citizens in 21st-century Japan to suddenly fit into the strictest protocol of any monarchy and be able to represent the nation adequately.
Naturally, the concern within the imperial family is palpable. And although its members cannot make partisan political statements, they have pointed out the issue on various occasions. Prince Akishino - brother of Emperor Naruhito, the current Heir and father of the aforementioned Hisahito - has publicly expressed his concern several times about the dwindling number of members serving the Crown. The sovereign himself surprised both insiders and outsiders in the press conference he held before traveling with Empress Masako to Europe - on the occasion of the State visits they are making to the Netherlands and Belgium - by emphasizing that efforts to ensure the future of the institution "should have the understanding of the people."
Emperor Naruhito, always measured and prudent, did not go further. But surely in his thoughts were both the Assembly's draft and the fact that all political debates on the matter exclude the real sentiment of the citizens. In fact, 72% of Japanese people are in favor of allowing women to reign, and 74% would allow the transmission of succession rights through the maternal line, according to the latest surveys. This desire clashes with the ultra-conservatism and immobility of the ruling elite. Sanae Takaichi made history in February by becoming the first woman to head the Japanese government. However, in her first speech as leader, dubbed the Japanese Iron Lady, she made it clear that it was urgent to resolve the inevitable problem affecting the dynasty as well as flatly rejecting the inclusion of women in the succession order.
Only at the beginning of the 2000s was the idea of Japan having an empress reconsidered - it is worth noting that the strict Salic law is a product of the rules promulgated during the Meiji Era (1868-1912), as Japan had had up to ten empresses before. With Princess Aiko as the only descendant of the then Crown Prince Naruhito, and given that her brother Akishino only had two daughters at the time, Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi tasked a panel of experts with a project to amend the Imperial House Law. However, the unexpected birth of Hisahito in 2006 was a relief for the traditionalist ruling elite, and thus the debate on female succession was buried, against the majority opinion of the people. A population that is still not given a voice or vote despite the Constitution stating that the emperor's position "derives from the will of the people, in whom the sovereign power resides."