The departure of Nicolás Maduro from Venezuela on January 3 was the beginning of real change. The Panama Manifesto, the opposition's roadmap to guide the transition, was a continuation. This document acknowledges the US plan for the oil-rich country: "Stabilization, reconstruction, and transition". Nobel Prize winner María Corina Machado was chosen - by the Unitary Platform and other political organizations, in that May meeting - to lead possible negotiations with the Government of Delcy Rodríguez. However, the dialogue will begin on August 1 without the leader of Vente Venezuela.
Three Venezuelan intellectuals analyze for EL MUNDO the long road ahead for their nation. If there is one clear thing, it is the mandate of June 28, the elections almost two years ago, in which Edmundo González emerged victorious, a result not recognized by Chavismo. "In all my life, I had never seen such a monumental collective feat in my country as what happened on July 28. People organized to have voting centers, to open them, to have witnesses, to take care of the records, to bring voters, to provide water and food to the witnesses...", explains Venezuelan journalist Milagros Socorro (1960, Maracaibo), who writes for 'Artículo 14' and is based in Spain.
"It is a contribution to the world's democracy and, of course, for Venezuela, it is unprecedented and will hardly be replicated," she adds. "That is Panama, it is having listened to the mandate of a people that shouted it," adds the also writer and university professor. Based on that premise, there are aspects that raise many doubts:
The double earthquake has been an aggravating factor and has highlighted the failures of the interim government. "Earthquakes present an unexpected scenario. They have forced the various parties to clarify their positions with all clarity. Machado has made clear her willingness to return to Venezuela as soon as possible; the Trump Administration has made it clear that this possibility deviates from its current plan, and the Rodrigato makes it clear that its only demand to Trump is to prevent Machado's return to Venezuela," analyzes the professor and political consultant Miguel Ángel Martínez Meucci (Caracas, 1976). In his opinion, this is generating "great indignation" and predicts an increase in current tensions.
"The US plan, more than six months after the military intervention, has turned into a Maduro government without Maduro's presence," considers the writer Francisco José Suniaga (La Asunción, 1954). "The earthquake revealed their incompetence, corruption, and uselessness," he adds. "The plan will need adjustments. Release political prisoners, allow the return of opposition leaders in exile, starting with María Corina Machado, appoint an electoral council, and set a date for elections," he reflects.
In Panama, the strong point was the proposal to start a three-way dialogue, with the current Government of Venezuela and the US, for which the opposition appointed Machado as its interlocutor. However, Caracas later said it would not negotiate with her, and a meeting took place between Jorge Rodríguez, in his capacity as president of the National Assembly in 2026, and Dinorah Figuera, as president of the Assembly in 2015, as reported by the US Department of State. This is the opposition chosen by Washington to start negotiations on August 1.
"Figuera is the figure that the regime accepted as an interlocutor and the one that the US found as the closest to institutionalism," analyzes journalist Socorro. She also adds that for Chavismo, "a united opposition is the most terrible enemy."
According to the experts consulted, Washington is key to the negotiations. "There have been many dialogues during the 27 years of Chavismo in Venezuela. At least in six processes of this type, there was foreign facilitation. It may sound absurd, but in all of them, the topic to be discussed, 'in broad strokes,' was whether the Chavista regime would comply with the Constitution in exchange for the opposition to stop demanding it. The novelty in this case is that the external actor, more than a facilitator, exercises a protectorate over Venezuela. In such conditions, the possibilities and modalities of negotiation have much to do with what this external government considers convenient for its own national interest. Much will depend on each actor's ability to handle this crucial factor," explains Professor Martínez Meucci.
Martínez Meucci cannot conceive that Machado does not participate. "A negotiator must represent the involved party or sector in the negotiation. At this moment, a negotiation in which the democratic forces of Venezuela are not represented by Machado leaves out Venezuelans in general. This was recognized by the various political forces that signed the Panama Manifesto." The Democratic Unitary Platform is the main alliance of the Venezuelan dissidence.
PERPETUITY OF THE DELCY RODRÍGUEZ GOVERNMENT?
In January, Donald Trump chose the then Vice President Delcy Rodríguez to lead Venezuela. However, under the threat that "if she does not do the right thing, she will pay a price probably higher than Maduro." With over six months in power, is there a risk that her government will perpetuate? "Delcy Rodríguez and her brother Jorge have repeatedly shown their ability to buy time. While the clock ticks quickly for democratic actors, it usually favors autocrats. If democratic forces inside and outside of Venezuela do not act coordinately, the continuity of the regime is a real possibility that should not be ruled out, despite how precarious its stability is at the moment," firmly responds Venezuelan political scientist Martínez Meucci.
Lawyer and professor Suniaga expresses a similar view. He emphasizes that, considering her low popularity among Venezuelans and her real leadership capacity, it does not seem the most likely a priori, although he points out that "they are very good at surviving". Socorro, on the other hand, trusts in the opposition's leadership capacity, which has the majority support of Venezuelans.
At this point, the main guarantor would be the US. According to Martínez Meucci, Washington is interested in Caracas transitioning to democracy. "The stability of the bond between both countries is better guaranteed when democracy prevails. On the contrary, Chavismo has squandered all of Venezuela's resources and has handed it over to the worst autocracies on the planet to go against democracy, against the Venezuelan people, and against the US," summarizes the Venezuelan expert.
Suniaga is more skeptical regarding the help that the US could provide to carry out the transition: "I don't trust it because that doesn't seem to be Donald Trump's objective, he seems satisfied with the business he can do with Venezuela's natural resources."
"The transition has already begun, it was mental-cultural," argues Socorro, mentioning again the feat of June 28.
ELECTIONS
The opposition's goal is to achieve free, transparent, and fair elections, or "sovereign" as stated in the Manifesto. A demand that has not only arisen from what happened on June 28, as it has been a constant request from those opposed to Chavismo. The big question remains whether the results will be respected.
Suniaga believes that elections with those characteristics "are an essential requirement for a politically solid government to exist". They can be achieved, "but that depends on the decision of the United States or a popular uprising in Venezuela." "The Rodriguez government will not make that decision. If it were up to them, they would create a Maduro-type regime, with more repression and democratic limitations," points out the Venezuelan writer.
On the other hand, Martínez Meucci reinforces the idea of the need for "democratic forces inside and outside of Venezuela to act in coordination around that common interest goal for all."
"They won't be free, transparent, or fair, but the same was true on July 28," insists Venezuelan Socorro, highlighting that the election day did not take place under the conditions of democratic elections and yet Maduro was defeated. She believes, however, that the opposition will fight to have the best circumstances. To go to the polls and, in reality, for the entire transition process, she appeals to the international community. "We need every ally to listen to us. We hope that Spain looks at Venezuela."
RECONSTRUCTION
Recently, Cuban political scientist Juan Antonio Blanco explained when talking about the future of the island that "99% of those who have been abroad for more than five years do not return to the country to settle." A statement that leads to similar thoughts about Venezuela. How to rebuild a country so devastated and punished?
Journalist Socorro trusts in the strength of Venezuelans: "Reconstruction is not to worry about, it is to take action". And she values the people who have endured within: "There are wonderful people who have endured the most terrible things without debasing themselves."
Suniaga refers to a "long process led by politically legitimate and technically prepared leadership."
Martínez Meucci, although considering it "very complicated," is optimistic because he gives great importance to the "advantages" in Venezuela. "First: incomparable resources, such as the largest oil reserves on the planet, rare earths, biological mega-diversity, and gigantic hydroelectric potential; second: a society without ethnic or religious conflicts, united around the same desire for freedom, democracy, and prosperity, embracing values of work, private property, and free market like no other; third: a diaspora reaching 30% of the population, which will leverage Venezuela's development from their experiences and savings accumulated in over twenty countries where more than 90% of Venezuelans abroad are concentrated; and fourth: total destruction allows for the establishment of cutting-edge government systems with minimal social cost, in an era marked by Artificial Intelligence and digital platforms."
"We will do it as human life is also rebuilt, from the wound, because there is no better teacher than pain, it makes you recognize the pain of others. Women will do it by recognizing the pain of others, we will do it house by house, picking up the vase that fell and broke, gluing it back together, repairing it...," concludes the emotional Venezuelan journalist. Because that pain is also hers.