With its 16,000 inhabitants, the port of Mocha in Yemen had no relevance in the global economy until yesterday. If anything, its importance was historical. Or simply mythical. There, tradition claims, the coffee trade began. That's why there is a type of coffee known as mocha, which in English is written, precisely, mocha.
From yesterday, however, global consumers may remember Mocha not only when they drink coffee but also when they fill up their car tanks. Because the Houthi militias, allies of Iran, have taken the town. This puts them only 50 kilometers from the Bab el-Mandeb strait, the waterway that connects the Red Sea with the Indian Ocean, although their missiles, with ranges ranging from 40 to 2,000 kilometers, already have it in their sights.
Through Bab el-Mandeb passes 7% of the world's oil. And it is the main crude oil export route left for Saudi Arabia since the attack by Israel and the US on Iran caused the latter to close - or try to close - the Strait of Hormuz, through which, before the war, 20% of the world's oil passed.
'Bab el-Mandeb' means, in Arabic, 'Gate of Tears.' And it could be, at least at gas stations around the world. The news of the capture of Mocha by the Houthis was one of the factors that yesterday pushed the Brent crude oil barrel, which sets the price of approximately 75% of the world's oil, to its highest level since May 21, when Israel, the US, and Iran were at the height of the war. That benchmark oil reached $107, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI), which is used mainly in the US but is gaining importance globally, reached $102.
The capture of Mocha was not the only bad news yesterday. The news agency Bloomberg reported that Saudi Arabia had notified its OPEC allies that its oil production had dropped by a spectacular 23.5% in August, to its lowest level since August 1990, exactly 36 years ago. The reason was, once again, the war, which has strangled its export capacity due to the combined effect of Iran's attacks in the Persian Gulf and the Eastern Province, where its hydrocarbon fields are located, and the Houthis in the Red Sea. And to complete the wave of bad news, different sources reported that Iran had destroyed several US planes in a missile attack on a base in Jordan, confirming Tehran's military capability to continue the war.
All of this threatens to ruin energy price and inflation prospects for 2027. The British banking giant HSBC does not rule out the price of a barrel of oil reaching $120 in 2027 if Iran and its allies - mainly the Houthis and Shiite militias in Iraq - expand their operations to what the oil sector calls midstream, that is, transportation and logistics systems, such as pipelines, ports, and storage facilities. Iran attacked these facilities from March to May, during the war's most intense months. But since then, most of their actions have been against ships crossing the Strait of Hormuz.
The rise in oil prices has become the main threat to developed economies, especially at a time of enormous tension in public debt markets. Last Monday, the US celebrated Labor Day, which is the unofficial date when summer vacations end - and even pools close - with the most expensive gasoline in History in nominal terms, that is, without adjusting for inflation.
The price per gallon, which is about 3.5 liters, averaged $4.15. Diesel, also at historical nominal highs, was at $5.85 per gallon. This means that the transportation of any goods is extremely expensive, impacting prices, especially those of essential items, such as food. Inflationary pressure is not limited to oil. The commodity price index compiled by Bloomberg is at its highest level in 15 years. The US will hold legislative elections in six weeks, and next year there are general elections in France, Italy, and Spain.
The entry of the Houthis into the scene could worsen this situation. In the last seven weeks, these militias have attacked at least seven Saudi Arabian oil facilities with missiles and drones, including the Jazan refinery and storage tanks, and especially the Yanbu export terminal, which has been the only port through which Saudi Arabia has been able to continue uninterrupted oil exports since the war began.
Approximately 75% of the three million barrels of crude oil that country exports pass through Yanbu, although the percentage could have significantly increased in September, according to data from companies specialized in measuring crude oil traffic, such as Vortexa and Kpler. Last night, the Houthis were advancing southward, towards the strait, and according to the Wall Street Journal, they have already reached the Hanish Islands, at the entrance of that waterway, which is about 28 kilometers wide, twice the width of Gibraltar.