The information published yesterday by the newspaper EL MUNDO not only had a global impact in international media, but also triggered a cascade of reactions in specialized forums related to military and Intelligence analysis. The possibility of drone attacks launched from vessels linked to Moscow against Spain, France, and Italy is considered "tangible" in the intelligence community. The majority of them, already aware of Russian efforts to expand their hybrid and cognitive warfare in Europe, give credibility to the news and the CIA report warning of these actions.
For example, the military analysis group Geoinsider states that "this warning and these concerns did not arise suddenly today. There have been concerns for some time about the possibility of Russia using the so-called shadow fleet as part of its broader hybrid activities in Europe." Geoinsider insists that such actions have already occurred in the Baltic region, and therefore, Russia could export them to other areas of the continent.
French Geopolitics and Defense consultant Louis Duclos stated on his profile: "I do not believe that Russia would go as far as attacking infrastructure in France, Italy, or Spain, as that would trigger Article 5 of NATO. But allowing a threat to loom to shut down airports and divide our populations seems very possible to me. If a ship is detected launching Russian drones against our countries, it should be immediately sunk." Interestingly, the CIA report reveals that Gebrera drones would be used, the same model that Russia used (with 21 units) last year to violate the Polish border.
Italian analyst Marta Ottaviani comments, "The alarm is at its highest, and the country most concerned about its territorial integrity is precisely Lithuania." However, for Ottaviani, "an attack, even a hybrid one against one of the European Mediterranean countries, could trigger the opposite mechanism and lead to a common, coordinated, and unified European defense." The Defense & International Security channel ensures that "objectively, several drone overflights in Denmark, the Netherlands, and Germany last spring were carried out from ships of the Russian ghost fleet. The mode of action is therefore far from fanciful."
In Spain, the specialized publication Revista Ejércitos states that "not only us, but also many other analysts, have considered this possibility on numerous occasions, simply because it is obvious. In other words, it is undoubtedly among the options considered by the Kremlin, along with many others directed not only against these countries but also against the Netherlands, Belgium, Germany, and many other parts of Europe."
Retired Admiral Juan Rodríguez Garat affirms: The risk analyzed by the CIA is real, and one does not need to belong to any secret service to detect it. It has already happened in Northern Europe, and the South does not have to be different. It is also convenient for Russia that all this leaks in Europe because it boosts its campaign to instill fear in Mediterranean peoples in a way that does not even compromise it. But will it really happen? I don't think so. The risk for the Kremlin is high because it could achieve the opposite effect desired. It could make many citizens who see the war in Ukraine as something distant convinced that it affects us all."
Conflict reporter Laure Mandeville from Le Figaró comments, "Russia seems determined to increase pressure, either through the rumor of an attack or through a real attack below the threshold of Article 5. Objective: unsettle, demobilize, fuel pacifist fervors, and calls for peace from candidates in campaigns. In short, it is psychological warfare in all its splendor. A Soviet specialty."
Italian political and communication analyst Luigi Adriano Tonizzo assures that "the front page of EL MUNDO today [yesterday] is one of those at the highest alert level." Italian analyst Emiliano Gentilini wonders, citing the newspaper's information: "If the alert has been issued, what has the government done to protect us?" referring to the preparations of Giorgia Meloni's government. In the same terms, Italian MP Lia Quartapelle from the Democratic Party stated, "The news of a possible Russian drone attack against Italy deserves an immediate clarification from the government. Is it a founded news? What is the government, along with other European countries, doing to protect us from these risks?" Italian Senator Carlo Calenda echoed this idea: "An attack by Vladimir Putin on one or more European countries is a concrete possibility."