"The truth is that these are the strangest elections of my life. It seems as if they are making a bet at a bar. Just when you think you've seen it all, someone comes and says 'hold my beer'. Every day there is a surprise, and we don't like that." John and Susan have been married for over 35 years and have always voted Republican even though they live in one of the most progressive areas of Texas. They plan to do so again, but they like order, "the traditional way," and that's why, for the first time, they have reservations. "We have always supported Republican presidents and senators, but there are moments when one no longer knows who is theirs," they point out with some resignation.
Until recently, to understand Texas and win elections, it was said that all you needed to know was about meat and football, fear God, and cherish the right to bear arms. There was no doubt about who 'your people' were. On one side, those for small government, family values, a tough stance against communism and immigrants. On the other, anyone foolish enough to launch suicidal campaigns against the majority. You just had to support whoever came out of the blue and red primaries, and there were never any surprises. Not anymore.
This year's elections in the second largest state, most populous, and with the most electoral votes are a surprise, a show with dirty play and at times a farce. A sitcom with constant plot twists that has become the most followed in the country, as it is not only something very symbolic at stake but also possible control of the Upper House.
Even the most experienced experts cannot make sense of the most chaotic process anyone can remember. With James Talarico, a seminarian on the Democratic side, breaking fundraising records, becoming a national phenomenon, and mysteriously disappearing for two weeks in the middle of the campaign without giving convincing explanations. With the worst possible Republican candidate, Ken Paxton, the attorney general who faced impeachment in 2020 after eight of his closest collaborators accused him of using his position to benefit a real estate developer, who in turn employed a woman with whom Paxton had an extramarital relationship.
And much more. Gina Hinojosa, a Hispanic woman who challenges the almighty governor George Abbott, undefeated since 2014, and dreams of becoming the first Latina at the helm of the state. A singer at quinceañera parties who has gone viral. And above all, a President of the United States, unleashed, who every time he tries to lend a hand... ends up attacking his chosen one, insulting, belittling, and mocking Paxton, saying things like he is not handsome and doesn't know how to dress. Just two more examples: in the last 48 hours, the campaign has been marked by reports of how Paxton spent Christmas 2024 in Dubai with his lover and two fugitives from justice... who had financed his campaign. And by comments from the vice president, JD Vance, insinuating that James Talarico is gay and therefore untrustworthy.
Texas is a Republican stronghold, conservative, bordering, which Trump won by almost 14 points in 2024. It has progressive areas, like Dallas, but since 1988, with Lloyd Bentsen, no Democrat has won a Senate election here. Some have come close. In 2018, Beto O'Rourke became a national sensation: he toured all 254 counties, broke fundraising records, and filled events across the country, only to lose to Ted Cruz by just 2.6 points, the closest Democratic defeat in decades. Six years later, the bet was Colin Allred, a former NFL player and congressman, who thought he had a chance, only to be defeated by 8.5 points.
The pattern repeats itself: each cycle seems like the one for the opposition. Money and enthusiasm overflow, media attention multiplies, but then the votes from rural areas, the east and south, conservative suburbs and ranches prevail relentlessly. This time, local leaders say it might really be different, with a lead of around three and a half points on average in the polls for Talarico, so all eyes in the country are watching.
In the streets of Dallas, San Antonio, or Fort Worth, nothing else is talked about. There is a deep debate about loyalties, lesser evils, and holding one's nose. Many people would never vote for a Democrat, but there are also quite a few, disgusted, who are simply considering not voting. "I don't know what they have done to my party, it disgusts me," grumbles Ethan from his pickup truck, unsure if he despises Trump more or those who elevate him but "don't pay attention to what really matters: they are poisoning us with food," he adds.
For many, according to polls, the option could be to abstain at least in this specific Senate campaign, turned into a referendum on the president and his style. Trump is convinced that everything revolves around him and that the only way for his supporters to rise in the polls is if it becomes a personal plebiscite. But leaked audios from Paxton's team show that he privately acknowledges to donors and supporters that his campaign numbers had dropped after the Republican convention organized by Trump in Dallas last month. During those days, most ordinary citizens, waiters, drivers, hotel employees, salespeople, didn't even know the president was going to be there. Two years ago, stadiums had lines from early in the morning to attend his events. Now, there are empty rows and entire sections, even in Texas. Especially in Texas.
Talarico, 37 years old and single, is a former public school teacher and member of the state House of Representatives for four terms. With a background in theology and a political style that combines gentle manners, Christian values, and a progressive discourse focused on family economics and compassion, he has become one of the emerging figures of his party. In his favor are discontent over the cost of living and especially diesel, the controversies surrounding Paxton, and his ability to attract independents and some moderates. Polls show he has the support of 70% of Hispanics (who were split about 50% in the presidential elections)
The best indicator to understand how much of a phenomenon Talarico is that since late summer, he has had a press team of over 10 people. Every time Trump has visited the state in recent weeks, a swarm of cameras counterprograms the president by following Talarico to churches or centers for vulnerable people. And there are lines to interview him. "Some come to the city in private planes, stay in luxury hotels, and leave. James is always here," says Evan, one of the volunteers. "Paxton has 15 properties on a public servant's salary, someone explain that to me."
James Talarico has centered his Senate campaign on the cost of living and fighting corruption. His central argument is that the rising cost of housing, food, healthcare, and other basic expenses is directly related to a political system that favors billionaires and large corporations, for which Trump is responsible. His economic plan, dubbed the New American Dream, proposes raising the federal minimum wage to $15 per hour, increasing taxes on large fortunes and companies, and expanding access to services such as childcare.
At the same time, he presents corruption as the political flip side of this economic crisis and has made the scandals surrounding Paxton one of the pillars of his campaign. As a former teacher, he also advocates for public education and access to affordable public healthcare. On issues such as immigration, energy, and cultural topics, he aims to reach beyond the progressive base and attract independents and Republicans.
These days, the chaos is escalating amid rising tensions and player transfers. His rival has used AI in ads to discredit him, resorting to taunts like calling him "Tofu Talarico" or "Talafreako." Or some statements from 2021 about how "God is not binary." Talarico doesn't lose his cool—or his composure. But his strange absence of nearly two weeks has raised a lot of questions. According to his team, it was due to the flu, which was complicated by his diabetes.
With less than three weeks to go, the race is already a no-holds-barred battle. Personal accusations are growing increasingly serious—about his sexuality ["I love him too, sir. In a totally platonic way, to be clear. I'm the vice president, not James Talarico," JD Vance told a fan on Tuesday] and about the false rumor that he has been admitted to a clinic due to a flare-up in recent days. But the fight is about money—above all, a lot of money. Republicans are spending more here than anywhere else. On television ads alone, they've budgeted $230 million between September 1 and Election Day—four times more than their rivals.
Paxton is confident that his party membership card will be enough, just as it was for his predecessors. But he keeps getting himself into trouble and has repeatedly avoided a face-to-face debate, even though Trump suggested it at his last rally in San Antonio. Nor has Governor George Abbott dared to take on Hinojosa. "I've heard credible reports that Ken Paxton suffers from a serious medical condition that causes clinical levels of cowardice. People are concerned. I've been asked for proof that I'm alive. I'm asking him for proof that he has courage," Talarico urged his rival on Tuesday.