Few countries have as many things that the rest of the world desires. Canada is the second-largest country on the planet, with a huge amount of energy resources, minerals, and water, and only about 40 million inhabitants. A very high standard of living and close to $67,000 per capita income. It is part of the G-7, has one of the most highly educated populations in the developed world, and a public healthcare system that guarantees care, unlike its powerful neighbors to the south. In addition, it has a multilingual society, open to immigration, with stable institutions, a reputation for being a safe and friendly country, and a geography of lakes, mountains, and cities like Vancouver, Toronto, or Montreal that are among the most livable in the world.
It is a friendly country, without enemies, that is well-liked. Politically, they now have Mark Carney as their leader, a former governor of the Bank of Canada and the Bank of England who ranks among the most influential people on the planet and attends global forums and meetings like a rock star. His speech in Davos this year, defending a disappearing world, is one of the most cited and praised of the decade. Canada is so cool that even many in Europe wonder if it should join the EU.
And yet, probably no other among the richest and most influential countries has such a large national identity crisis. While the focus has been on Quebec for decades, the French-speaking region that has repeatedly sought secession, attention is now turning to the wealthy region of Alberta, which is holding a non-binding referendum for its citizens to decide if they also want to start the path towards independence.
"It's time to vote, to understand the will of the people of Alberta on this issue and move forward. There is no longer any sense or usefulness in prolonging an emotional and important debate," said Danielle Smith, the premier of the region, in May. The question on the ballot will not trigger a constitutional crisis, nor will the result have legal consequences, but the political earthquake is enormous, and the outcome will determine whether the legal process required by the Constitution to hold a binding referendum in the not too distant future will be initiated.
Surveys clearly indicate that around 70% have no secessionist desires, and only 25% would want independence. But even if that huge margin in favor of remaining is maintained, what happens next? There will be no clean slate. Tuesday morning does not mark the end of the story. The consultation is just the prologue to a new era. "We must deprive the separatist cause of any emotional oxygen. They thrive on humiliation, lack of respect, and all kinds of resentment. Therefore, we must not generate any, try to mitigate some of those that already exist, and address the idea that 'Canada is broken, we have to become independent because it is dysfunctional and does not work,'" said Michael Wernick of the University of Ottawa in the Globe and Mail a few days ago.
The referendum was called in February, initially with nine questions focusing on immigration and security. But at the end of May, Smith added a tenth question about remaining. The official reasons are that Alberta wants to strengthen its constitutional and fiscal position within a united Canada, in a context of low oil prices (the region has many resources) and budget preparation. Among the main issues to be decided are limiting health, education, and social service programs to citizens, permanent residents, and individuals with approved status by Alberta. Or whether to require 12 months of residency for those with temporary status and abolish the federal Senate, among others.
Smith's decision came after months of intense pressure from the separatist and nationalist lobby, small but with significant reach, which argues that Alberta's vast energy wealth is subsidizing the poorer areas of the country and that the bureaucracy in Ottawa has stifled the province's economy. Nothing different from what is heard in other countries, including Spain. And nothing that Canadians have not heard before.
The province of Quebec, predominantly French-speaking, has held two referendums, in 1980 and 1995. Quebecers voted to remain in Canada on both occasions, but by a narrow margin in 1995. Having overcome that phase, at least for now, the separatist-leaning Parti Québécois won the provincial elections earlier this month and has committed to holding a third referendum, but only after U.S. President Donald Trump leaves office. And that is the key.
Canadians are angry, anxious, and pessimistic, like much of the developed world. There is a housing crisis and a widespread affordability problem. Foreign workers are blamed for it, or for falling wages and lack of jobs. And after decades of solidarity and openness to refugees, social resources are scarce.
Part of the independence movement and its activists stem from the protests against the pandemic health restrictions and the 2022 Freedom Convoy, something shared with the MAGA world. They share with sociological Trumpism a distrust of elites and federal governments, opposition to climate policies, and a familiar rhetoric of regaining political control.
Meetings with U.S. Republicans
The Alberta Prosperity Project (APP), one of the main promoters of independence, has admitted to holding meetings with officials from the U.S. State Department in Washington regarding potential energy operations. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, among others, often speaks of Alberta as a "natural partner" of the United States, especially due to its energy resources. An investigation by The Globe and Mail revealed a meeting in Alberta between separatist leaders and Republican strategists linked to Trump's election campaigns, in which the U.S. delegation offered technology to mobilize voters.
It was the threats from the Americans that propelled the victory of Carney's Liberal Party last year. His party was written off, in free fall, but taunts and mentions of annexation, trade wars, and the untimely similarities between Canadian conservatives and Americans changed people's sentiments in a matter of weeks. David Coletto, whose polling company Abacus Data has been studying what he calls the "precarious mentality" for a year, argues that it is impossible for the separatist movements in Alberta and Quebec to succeed while Canadians maintain a persistent sense of insecurity and anxiety about the future. With threats from the U.S. and a volatile geopolitical environment, "the perceived value of national cohesion has increased."
The differences in discourse are very obvious. Quebec sovereigntists prioritize their cultural and linguistic identity, while those in Alberta focus on the economy and a libertarian ideology, advocating for stronger ties with Trump's United States. Political scientist Jared Wesley, analyzing the lessons from 1995, points out in an analysis on his blog that "while Quebec argued that cultural pride justified possible short-term economic losses" to maintain the urgency of independence, "Alberta separatists have based their entire project on economic benefits". And of course, it is challenging to argue that it is necessary if it can be harmful in the short term. "Their argument to the public is even more difficult, especially when the business sector expresses its opinion on the negative aspects," says the expert.
Although the heavyweights of Alberta's independence movement, such as Jeffrey Rath or Corey Morgan, have made gestures this month towards the Quebecois, after their victory that would allow them to govern in minorities, the Francophones do not seem very happy. Some prominent figures do not hide their displeasure, they believe this is not serious and damages their aspirations. Marie-Anne Alepin, president of the Société St-Jean-Baptiste de Montréal, a well-known nationalist group, has been denouncing for months that Alberta is using the threat of separatism "as a bargaining chip" in institutional and budget negotiations with Ottawa, and regrets that the referendum "is a means of pressure rather than a genuine desire to form a country. They want to have a more important role in Canada and we want to leave. They want more control over their oil and gas... we do not want pipelines," she said last week. "It's a waste of time, because defeat is certain. We gain nothing by observing the independence movement in Alberta, except perhaps negative lessons," former PQ leader Jean-François Lisée agreed.
The situation is a nightmare for Carney and the federal government. The focus of their speeches over the past year, facing Trump, the trade war, and threats, has been on unity and firmness. But Canada is anything but a solid block right now. Whatever happens, the crisis is likely to stagnate. In theory, Trump only has two years left in power. But when he is gone, the problems of Alberta, and Quebec, will still be there.