Midterms refers to the midterm legislative elections in the United States. Every four years, the country elects a president, but every two years it completely renews the House of Representatives (435 seats) and one-third of the Senate (this November, 35 of the 100 due to a couple of special elections). Additionally, governors, secretaries of state, state legislatures, members of state supreme courts, and all kinds of crucial referendums and proposals are voted on. Donald Trump is not on the ballots, but everyone acts as if he is, and analysts approach them as if they are the most important or decisive in recent history and perhaps the turning point of the MAGA movement.
Who organizes them?
Electoral competencies are in the hands of the states. And largely depend on local administrations, especially counties. States set the rules, registration requirements (because in the U.S. you must actively register to vote; there is no default census for registered voters), early and mail-in voting modalities (who can, how, where, and within what deadlines), and recount procedures. Counties and local authorities coordinate polling places, hire the staff (both permanent and ad hoc), distribute ballots, manage machines, and count votes. Despite their name, which might suggest they are responsible for foreign policy, secretaries of state in most states are the top officials of electoral authorities and oversee the application of the rules.
What role does Donald Trump play?
The president and the White House have tried to intervene much more directly in the organization of the elections. He has not managed to formally transfer any powers from the states to the central government, but he has used executive orders, federal agencies, and pressure on public funding to try to change the rules. Trump has claimed to "nationalize" or "federalize" the process, asserting that there is massive fraud. Therefore, he has attempted, in vain, to require all states to demand documentation proving U.S. citizenship for registration. Grant access to the Department of Homeland Security and DOGE to state electoral records. Condition certain federal aid on states accepting new requirements. Modify guidelines on voting machines, which he believes are manipulated. Or pressure to prevent mail-in ballots received after Election Day from being counted, even if they were sent within the deadline.
When are the elections held?
The official day is today, the first Tuesday of November, but in reality, the process started weeks ago. As of November 1, nearly 50 million Americans had already cast their ballots, either by mail or through in-person early voting. This mobilization far exceeds the pace at this point in the 2022 elections. The first polling places close at 6:00 PM (Eastern Time, midnight in Spain) in some areas of Indiana and Kentucky. In New York, at 9:00 PM (03:00 in Spain). The last ones, in Alaska, between 6 and 7 AM in Spain. This means that the first data may start coming in early in the evening, local time, but the overall picture, though not complete, will not be seen until well into the early morning in the U.S. or upon waking in Spain.
When will results be known?
It is not easy to know. In 2022, the last midterms that did not coincide with presidential elections, it was not known which party would control the Senate until four days later. And the House of Representatives, until eight days later. The recount is an exasperatingly slow process, especially in places like California, the largest state in the country. There, for example, it is not mandatory to present a photo ID on Election Day. There are oversight mechanisms to ensure that only those entitled to vote can do so, but this requires many post-checks, leading to recounts that can take days or weeks. Some states allow processing mail-in votes before Election Day, while others do not. States like North Carolina and Michigan have changed procedures to speed up the recount, while Arizona, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin have added rules that could slow it down.
Will it be like this again this year?
Polls seem to suggest that Democrats will likely flip the House of Representatives, probably by a wide margin. After 2024, Republicans had a majority of just a few seats, but if the advantage this year is sufficient, it won't take long to know if anyone reaches the 218 seats needed. The Senate is different. Right now, Republicans have a majority of 53 to 47, so Democrats need to gain at least four additional senators. It is possible, likely according to some of the latest polls, but not certain, so every vote in every county matters.
Who will win?
The average of the polls seems to suggest that Democrats will perform well. Historically, midterms have always been bad for the party of the sitting president. Only two or three times in the last 50 years has that party not lost seats in Congress. Typically, there is a drop of at least 6 or 7 points compared to the presidential vote, a mechanism of control and balance. To control the House of Representatives, 218 seats are needed. In the Senate, 51, although in the event of a 50-50 tie, the country's vice president, JD Vance, would have the tie-breaking vote. The latest Siena/New York Times poll shows very positive results for Democrats, with leads of up to 11 points in Michigan or seven in Texas.
Who certifies the results?
As expected, the official results are sealed by the electoral authorities of each state, after a review and certification process. But as any night owl knows, it is common in the U.S. for networks like CNN or Fox, and especially outlets like AP, with a team of data experts and very sophisticated models, to project winners when they believe there is no statistical possibility of the result changing, even if the count is not very advanced. A projection is an estimate, but they rarely get it wrong or rush it. The final formal certification is slow, and some states will not complete it until December.
Which states are the most decisive?
This is an impossible question because there are thousands of positions at stake at all levels. But since it is assumed that the House of Representatives will have a Democratic majority, all eyes are on the Senate. To achieve the sorpasso there as well, progressives need to hold the seat in Minnesota, Georgia, and Michigan, where Abdul El-Sayed hopes to become the first Muslim senator in history. Additionally, they would need to win Texas, something unprecedented in nearly 40 years, or Kansas, which has not elected a Democratic senator since 1932. They need to regain Ohio. Win in Maine, Alaska, and North Carolina. With all this, they would have a majority of 52 to 48, enough to mount a serious opposition.
Are controversies expected?
Yes, undoubtedly. Both parties have armies of lawyers ready to litigate, demand, request recounts, or block them. Donald Trump has already ordered the Department of Justice to litigate preemptively in California, claiming that there are at least 20,000 people registered to vote without the right to do so. He has already attempted to prevent the certification of results in Alaska if his candidate loses, as he considers it illegal for there to be an independent candidate with the same name on the ballots, apparently pushed by Democrats to confuse voters, but a judge dismissed it on Sunday. So there could be lawsuits for months.
And are any incidents expected?
This is the big unknown. There are fears of possible incidents if ICE or other federal agencies are deployed near polling places, intimidating voters. Election officials across the country are working under enormous pressure. Since 2020, violent threats against them have become commonplace, and local authorities have reinforced the protection of their offices and staff. In mid-October, over 100 letters with threats or suspicious white powders were sent to individuals and organizations across the country, including at least one senator and a polling company. To protect themselves, many counties have installed panic buttons that connect polling place officials with local police, and have placed sheriff's deputies at early voting sites. In many places, workers have received training in de-escalation techniques and how to react to an active shooter. In states like Pennsylvania, where the law prohibits police from being inside polling places, organizers are speaking with local authorities to have emergency teams with radios near polling locations in case something happens. And there are evacuation and ballot protection protocols everywhere.
When do the new congress members and senators take office?
On January 3, 2027, at noon. On that day, all members of the House and one-third of the Senate take their oath, and the House elects its speaker, which effectively determines who controls the legislative calendar. Until then, the current Congress will continue to operate in what is known as a transition session (lame duck). Governors do not follow this schedule, and each state sets its own, usually in January. If a senator's seat becomes vacant, as should happen in Tennessee since Senator Blackburn will become governor, her position will be temporarily filled by someone she designates until the next elections in two years.
Have the elections been the most expensive in history?
Yes, they have. Estimates from firms like AdImpact suggest up to $11.6 billion in political spending for this cycle, surpassing the $11.2 billion spent in the 2024 presidential elections. Compared only to previous midterm elections, the increase is over 20%. According to data from regulators, as of October 26, Elon Musk is the individual who has contributed the most out of pocket, nearly $450 million, primarily in Texas. This is three times more than conservative couple Dick and Liz Uihlein ($150 million), the Republican Senate Super PAC One Nation ($138 million), or tech gurus Marc Andreessen and Ben Horowitz ($116 million). The Soros family has contributed just over $100 million, slightly more than Mike Bloomberg, the two largest contributions from the Democrats.