With the verdict of the polls known, the campaign for the 2028 presidential elections unofficially begins in the United States this Wednesday. Democrats and Republicans are gearing up for the long race, uncertain about who will become their candidate. There are plenty of rumors and predictions. The Republican Party must now lick its wounds after the brutal defeat suffered in this midterm election.
On Sunday night, in Kansas, President Donald Trump invited Secretary of State Marco Rubio to come on stage to say a few words. When he announced his name, the crowd erupted in applause and cheers, and the president, one of the country's greatest experts in attention and charisma, noticed immediately. "He's getting a little too popular. I'm not happy about this. Oh, look at him. A little too popular. I don't like it. I don't like it. If he gets even more popular, I'm going to say: 'You're fired'," he joked, using the expression and gestures he used on his television show, The Apprentice.
His reaction was a joke, and it's certainly not the first time he's done something similar with members of his party or his administration. But the fact that Rubio was there with him, in a state with which he has no connection, is, on the other hand, a very serious matter. A few days earlier, he had also been at rallies in Corpus Christi and Lubbock, in Texas, another state with which he has no ties. And the audience's reaction had been the same.
Trump always travels with guests; he likes to offer the podium for a short time to others, test people, and study reactions. Connecting with people naturally is something you either have or you don't. But when you add that in the last two weeks he has resisted giving his explicit support to JD Vance as a potential Republican candidate in the upcoming presidential elections, that Rubio and Vance are appearing in all predictions as the clearest and most likely contenders to replace the MAGA leader, and that unofficially the presidential campaign starts today, as the midterms end, the rumors in Washington have exploded.
In an interview in mid-last month, the Vice President initially said he wasn't sure if he would receive the President's backing immediately if he decided to run for the Presidency in 2028. Vance stated that his top priority was the midterm elections and said he wasn't even sure what he would want to do in two years. But shortly after, he claimed: "I think if I run, the president will support me".
Less than 24 hours later, when reporters presented Trump with that hypothetical scenario, the president distanced himself. "He's a very talented and very good person," Trump said about the man behind him, with a forced smile. "But, honestly, I don't think we've ever talked about that (..) You know? Who would believe it? I don't talk about that with him; he doesn't talk about that... It's very early, very early still. We have to get through the midterm elections and see what happens," he replied.
Things have become much more complicated for Vance in less than two years. When he was chosen as Vice President, backed by Trump's children and Silicon Valley millionaires, the president didn't really know Vance, who had been a senator for less than two years. He had become famous with a book about his childhood and adolescence in proud, poor environments in Appalachia. But he had also harshly criticized the president. His beginnings were promising for his aspirations, and there was some consensus in the conservative world that Trump had not just chosen a second-in-command but a protégé. Someone to whom he could pass the MAGA movement's baton. A conservative, very hostile to wars, to aid for Ukraine, willing to defend anything.
Since coming to power, however, Rubio has gradually gained ground. The institutional design facilitates this. Vance is probably the Vice President with the most access to the Oval Office and to the leader of modern times. At least since Jimmy Carter, but likely much more. But he has no power per se. In fact, he has been absent at key moments when decisions were made about the Iran war or the operation that led to Maduro's capture. That the White House gave him responsibilities in peace negotiations that have not been successful, while Rubio was instead paving the way for control of Venezuelan oil, has not helped him.
Rubio has been growing every day, gaining access to the president's inner circle. He has taken on National Security responsibilities in the process, and all the internet memes reference this, joking that whenever someone is fired, the Hispanic will also have to take on those extra duties. In September, Bloomberg's monthly magazine featured him on the cover and included testimonies from White House and government workers delighted with Rubio, but not with Vance. "He frequently walks around the building telling jokes and chatting with junior staff. 'Although no one says it out loud, behind closed doors many people are rallying behind him as the leading candidate for 2028,'" said a Trump ally in the report. "It's not anti-JD. It's just that Rubio is the best person to carry the torch," they claimed.
Analysts agree that, if there are Republican primaries, the winner will be the one who receives the backing of the MAGA leader. Generally, the support of an outgoing president is crucial, but in this case, it is decisive, because no one today conceives that someone opposed to Trump has serious options at the national level. Rubio was his rival in the 2015 primaries. He received many insults and scorn, but later managed to build bridges. He understood that Trump was the owner of the party and would be for a long time, and that any ambitious aspiration involves getting along well with him. Moreover, both are from Florida.
The scenery these days is fascinating. Gradually, the candidates have to stick their heads out, but with extreme caution. Names like Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, who just yesterday sought to distance himself from Iran and was very forceful about responsibility for gas prices. Texas Senator Ted Cruz, who has tried before. Missouri Senator Josh Hawley. Perhaps even Trump's eldest son, Don Jr. And many more could emerge once the floodgates open. That will be the moment when Trump admits he cannot run in 2028 (the Constitution prevents it, but he continues to provoke by saying he might).
The president jokes about the popularity of others, but it's a very delicate matter. Everything must be discreet so as not to overshadow him, and above all, everyone must pay a loyalty toll. Washington political analysts are frequently citing a long speech by Rubio in Athens about the virtues of Western civilization these days. The Secretary of State placed Trump's America First agenda within a broader philosophical tradition, tracing back to Plato. "We have much to learn from the men of ancient Greece", Rubio said. "They knew there was nothing selfish or wrong in loyalty to the nation, nor anything selfish or wrong in fighting to defend their interests above all." It's not just what he said, but how he sold it. The State Department had no less than four video cameras, including one mounted on a crane to capture shots on the hill where ancient Athenians gathered to debate and vote.
Vance had done something similar, but with fewer references, in September at his party's convention in Dallas, Texas. He has more connections with MAGA influencers and podcasters like Theo Von or Joe Rogan. Not to mention tech gurus like Elon Musk or especially Peter Thiel. He is a link between money and those who have a voice. And in Dallas, as he did in the 2024 presidential debates, he showed his more establishment, calm side. Without Trump's antics or his missteps. The more presidential side in the traditional Republican way, aware, like Rubio, that there is no one on the planet who can follow in Trump's footsteps, copy his tone, or achieve his charisma.