Global carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from fossil fuels (gas, oil, and coal) are expected to decrease by 0.4% in 2026, after averaging an annual growth of 0.8% between 2019 and 2025. Specifically, 38.2 billion tons will be emitted from burning fossil fuels. Given that a slight increase in emissions from land-use change (such as deforestation) is anticipated, total CO2 emissions (fossil emissions and emissions from land use) are projected to reach 43.3 billion tons in 2026, up from 42.8 billion last year. This will be the first year since the coronavirus pandemic in which annual fossil emissions will be cut.
This is highlighted in the prestigious annual study conducted by Global Carbon Project and published this Tuesday in the journal Nature Climate Change, coinciding with the Climate Summit in Antalya (COP31), Turkey.
This work, prepared by an international team of over 140 scientists from nearly a hundred institutions, serves as the benchmark report on emissions trends. It measures progress toward the goals of the Paris Agreement, which aims to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees—and at most to two degrees—by the end of the century compared to pre-industrial temperatures.
According to their calculations, if emissions reach 43.3 billion tons this year, the remaining carbon budget (the amount of CO2 that can be emitted before warming exceeds 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels) is now 150 billion tons, equivalent to less than four years of emissions at the current rate. In other words, it is practically finished.
Moreover, despite the positive aspect of the projected 0.4% reduction in emissions, the authors link this decline not only to the increase in clean energy but also to the rise in oil and gas prices due to the war in Iran. They believe that "it is probably a temporary decrease," rather than a sign that emissions have reached a definitive peak.
Indeed, while the authors emphasize that "clean technologies are increasingly contributing to limiting emissions growth," they attribute the expected 0.4% decline mainly to high oil prices following the U.S. conflict with Iran that began on February 28. Additionally, the powerful natural phenomenon of El Niño in the 2026-27 season is expected to have a significant impact in 2027 due to its influence on extreme events like major wildfires.
"The decline in CO2 emissions from fossil fuels is encouraging, but a reduction driven in part by unforeseen geopolitical events does not constitute a sustainable climate solution," stated Pierre Friedlingstein, director of the Global Carbon Budget Office at the University of Exeter and leader of this study, in a statement.
China, the country deploying the most clean technologies
Oil emissions are expected to decrease by 1.9% this year; natural gas emissions by 0.3%, while emissions linked to coal burning will rise by 0.6%, mainly due to increased use in India.
In fact, country-specific analysis shows that India is the only major polluter in the world that will continue to increase its emissions in 2026. The projection for this country, responsible for 8% of global emissions, is an increase of 4.4%.
China's emissions will decrease by 0.9%, following two years of low emissions growth, as electricity generation from renewables continues to grow strongly. Although the Asian giant is responsible for 32% of global fossil emissions, the report highlights that it is also the most active country in deploying clean technologies and increasing carbon sinks through reforestation.
Regarding the U.S. (responsible for 13% of global emissions), emissions will decrease by 1.3%, a figure mainly due to cuts in coal emissions, which surged in 2025 due to high natural gas prices and increased demand from the cold.
The reduction in the EU (6% of global emissions) will reach 1.5%, down to 2,368.3 million tons in 2026, while in Japan (2.5% of global emissions) they will decrease by 1%.
The transition to clean energy
Despite the turbulence in global energy markets, changes in priorities among some governments, trade barriers, and increased energy demand driven by artificial intelligence and data centers, the authors say the transition to cleaner energy continues.
Renewables and electric vehicles are increasingly contributing to limiting global emissions, but their effects are countered by rising energy demand, especially in emerging economies. Therefore, analysts are still uncertain whether these technologies will be able to offset the increase in demand in 2026 and place global emissions on a sustained downward path.
To conduct this research, they analyzed how electric vehicles, solar energy, and wind energy have contributed to countering the growth of global emissions between 2019 and 2025, and projected their effects until 2028. Their analysis revealed that 59 countries, including South Africa, Thailand, Colombia, and Mexico, recorded emissions in 2025 lower than those in 2019 while experiencing economic growth.
Solar and wind energy prevented an estimated 4.1 billion tons of carbon dioxide from being emitted into the atmosphere in 2025, of which approximately 2.1 billion tons came from China, 500 million from the United States, another 500 million from the European Union, and 300 million from India.
They also note that between 2025 and 2028, electric vehicles, solar energy, and wind energy are expected to jointly prevent an additional 2 billion tons of emissions.
The results suggest that clean technologies are already offsetting a significant portion of emissions growth, but still not enough to allow for a sustained global decline. For Pierre Friedlingstein, "the long-term answer remains the rapid deployment of energy technologies. Although renewables and electric vehicles are increasingly offsetting the growth in energy demand, greater acceleration is needed for global emissions to peak and enter a sustained decline."