The business association of the tourism sector in Spain, Exceltur, has warned this Thursday that if the conflict in Iran continues, the entire sector's value chain in the country could be affected, and the viability of some airlines could be "at risk."
"We would be extremely concerned if the war does not end soon," explained Óscar Perelli, executive vice president of Exceltur, an association that brings together 32 of the most relevant companies throughout the tourism value chain. The sector faces two very different scenarios. If the war does not end promptly, the consequences could be devastating: price increases, capacity reductions in the subsectors that make up the chain, decreased profit margins, and possible layoffs after the summer. "The viability of some airlines may be at risk," Perelli emphasized.
The airline sector usually plans its summer operations - which run from March 31 to October 30 - before the end of the first quarter of the year, but this year they will not be able to do so until at least the end of April and they will do so with the uncertainty of whether they will have enough fuel at a good price to surpass the numbers from the previous summer season, hence, they have already announced summer capacity cuts due to the impossibility of absorbing the kerosene prices, as reported by this media outlet.
The duration of the war will be crucial for the spring and summer campaign: Spain has the opportunity to access a potential market of 47 million tourists who will not travel to areas near the conflict, such as Egypt or the United Arab Emirates. This refuge effect is key for the growth of the tourism GDP to soar to 2.8% between January and September. If Spanish tourism is unable to attract those travelers who exclude destinations near the war, growth for the same period is expected to remain at 0.5%.
In that same scenario, the economic contribution in 2026 from tourists arriving in Spain would be ¤4.239 billion, offsetting the negative effects resulting from price increases, reduced consumption, and the impact on the income of families and businesses, which would cut activity by ¤4.045 billion.